Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Apr 28 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 April 2014
Solar activity was predominately at low levels throughout the period but reached high levels on 25 April due to an R3 (Strong) radio blackout. On 25 April at 0027 UTC Region 2035 (S13, L=224, class/area=Ekc/390 on 23 Apr), two days behind the solar west limb, produced an impulsive X1/Sf flare at 25/0027 UTC with an associated Type-II radio sweep (estimated speed 753 km/s), a radio burst of
43,000 sfu on 245 MHz, and a 1,100 sfu Tenflare. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 25/0048 UTC but was directed well west of the Sun-Earth line and did not contain an Earth-directed component. The remainder of the period was dominated by low-level C-class flare activity from a number of active regions: Region 2034
(N04, L=244, class/area=Ekc/480 on 18 Apr) produced eight C-flares, Region 2035 produced 44 C-flares and one M-flare (16 Apr), and Region 2036 (S15, L=246, class/area=Dhc/510 on 17 Apr) produced 28 C-flares and one M-flare (18 Apr). The other active regions on the visible disk this period were relatively unproductive and unremarkable.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated early in the period due to the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm last week (18 Apr), but remained well-below the S1 alert threshold. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels/exceeded the 1,000 pfu alert threshold on 25-27 April, reaching a maximum flux value of 2,920 pfu at 27/1630 UTC, likely in response to a solar wind enhancement associated with a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at unsettled to active levels on 21 April due to the lingering effects of a pair of CMEs (from 16 and 18 Apr) that arrived at Earth on 19 and 20 April. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 24-25 April due a weak negative polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet for the remainder of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 April - 24 May 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for 28 April-04 May and 20-24 May. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class flare activity for 05-19 May due to the return of old Regions 2035 (S13, L=224) and 2036 (S15, L=246).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for 28 April-05 May due to a solar wind enhancement associated with the negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) from 24-25 April and a positive polarity CH HSS on 29-30 April. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29-30 April (positive CH HSS), 14-15 May (positive CH HSS-like feature), and 21-22 May (negative CH HSS). Predominately quiet geomagnetic field activity is expected for the remainder of the period, barring any unforeseeable transient features.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Apr 28 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-04-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Apr 28 115 5 2
2014 Apr 29 120 8 3
2014 Apr 30 120 8 3
2014 May 01 125 5 2
2014 May 02 130 5 2
2014 May 03 135 5 2
2014 May 04 140 5 2
2014 May 05 145 5 2
2014 May 06 150 5 2
2014 May 07 150 5 2
2014 May 08 150 5 2
2014 May 09 150 5 2
2014 May 10 150 5 2
2014 May 11 150 5 2
2014 May 12 150 5 2
2014 May 13 150 5 2
2014 May 14 150 10 3
2014 May 15 145 8 3
2014 May 16 140 5 2
2014 May 17 140 5 2
2014 May 18 135 5 2
2014 May 19 130 5 2
2014 May 20 130 5 2
2014 May 21 125 10 3
2014 May 22 120 8 3
2014 May 23 120 5 2
2014 May 24 115 5 2
(NOAA)
