Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Sep 29 0423 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 September 2014
Solar activity increased to high levels this week with an M5/2b flare at 28/0258 UTC from Region 2173 (S17, L=250, class/area=Dac/160 on 28 Sep). Dimming was evident in SDO/AIA 193
imagery across the disk to the SW in conjunction with the flare. Associated with the event were weak multi-spectral radio emissions including a 10cm Burst (220 sfu), a Type II Sweep (638 km/s shock
velocity) and a weak, short-lived Type IV Sweep. Limited LASCO depicted a narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) lifting off the SSW limb, not judged to be Earth-directed. An M1/Sf flare was also
observed at 28/1733 UTC from Region 2173, accompanied by weak multi-spectral radio emissions.
Region 2173 was part of a large group of complex active regions in the southern hemisphere, including Regions 2172 (S11, L=239, class/area=Ekc/570 on 23 Sep) and 2171 (S10, L=264,
class/area=Eai/160 on 21 Sep). Both Region 2173 and 2172 had developed beta-gamma magnetic configurations by the end of the week. Region 2172 produced an M2/2b flare on 23/2316 UTC and several C-class flares throughout the period. The M-flare was associated with 250 sfu Tenflare along with Type II (est. speed 652 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A CME was subsequently observed at 23/2348 UTC on the east limb in Lasco C2 imagery. The next day, the same region produced a C7/1n flare 24/1750 UTC with an associated 190 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. No CME was correlated with this event. Activity from Region 2171 was limited to a single C-class flare on 25 Sep.
Complex regions were present in the Northern Hemisphere as well. Region 2175 (N16, L=262, class/area=Dkc/390 on 28 Sep) emerged on the disk on 25 Sep and had developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration by the 26th. It continued to grow rapidly through the remainder of the week while maintaining its complex magnetic characteristics. The region, however, was only responsible for C-class activity. Region 2177 (N12, L=168, class/area=Eai/120 on 28 Sep) developed a beta-gamma configuration on 28 Sep, but only produced a few C-class flares.
The remaining M-class flare (M1) occurred on 27/0837 as Region 2178 (S03, L=151, class/area=Cao/50) rounded the east limb. The remaining regions on the disk were generally stable and no significant filament eruptions were observed.
No proton events meeting alert criteria were observed at geosynchronous orbit, however, there was a slight elevation in 10 MeV protons on 22 Sep, reaching a peak flux of 2 pfu at 1300 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 22-25 Sep, and high levels on 26-28 Sep.
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels, with minor to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The week began with a solar sector boundary crossing (negative to
positive) early on 22 Sep. This heralded the arrival of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Solar wind speed was predominantly in the 400 km/s to 470 km/s range with total field ranging from 3 nT to 8 nT. From 22-23 September, quiet to unsettled conditions were observed. By 24 September, Bz had become mostly negative and the day was characterized by predominantly active conditions. Minor to major storm periods were observed at high latitudes, and a single severe storm period was recorded. The agitated conditions relented somewhat on 25-26 September, when mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed. However, Major storm periods were still being recorded at high latitudes on the 26th. September 27th began with active conditions, but eventually subsided to quiet to unsettled levels by the 28th as the solar wind speed slackened slightly and the magnetic field relaxed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 September - 25 October 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) for the forecast period (29 Sep-25 Oct) due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2172, 2173, and 2175 as well as the return of old Regions 2157 (S15, L=099) and 2158 (N16, L=089) on 29 and 30 Sep, respectively.
A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor and above) exists for the forecast period (29 Sep-25 Oct) due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2172, 2173, and
2175 as well as the return of old Regions 2157 and 2158.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 29 Sep-02 Oct and again on 22-25 Oct due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 29 Sep-02 Oct, 15, 17,19-20 and 25 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 16 and 21-24 Oct due to CH HSS
activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 29 0423 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-09-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Sep 29 185 10 3
2014 Sep 30 190 10 3
2014 Oct 01 195 8 3
2014 Oct 02 195 10 3
2014 Oct 03 175 5 2
2014 Oct 04 165 5 2
2014 Oct 05 155 5 2
2014 Oct 06 150 5 2
2014 Oct 07 150 5 2
2014 Oct 08 145 5 2
2014 Oct 09 140 5 2
2014 Oct 10 140 5 2
2014 Oct 11 140 5 2
2014 Oct 12 135 5 2
2014 Oct 13 130 5 2
2014 Oct 14 120 5 2
2014 Oct 15 135 8 3
2014 Oct 16 150 15 4
2014 Oct 17 165 8 3
2014 Oct 18 170 5 2
2014 Oct 19 165 8 3
2014 Oct 20 160 10 3
2014 Oct 21 160 20 4
2014 Oct 22 165 15 4
2014 Oct 23 165 15 4
2014 Oct 24 170 15 4
2014 Oct 25 170 10 3
(NOAA)
