Three Day Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2014
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17
00-03UT 3 3 3
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 3
15-18UT 2 2 3
18-21UT 2 3 3
21-00UT 2 4 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms from one of several regions on the visible disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 14 2014 1933 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are likely,
with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event. Regions 2241
Product: Advisory Outlook advisory-outlook.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 15 0200 UTC
#
# Prepared by the Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-50
2014 December 14 at 6:55 p.m. MST (2014 December 15 0155 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For December 8-14
A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm was observed on 12 December.
R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 13 and 14 December.
No S1 (minor) or greater space radiation events were observed, although 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced on 14 December, with a maximum flux of 2.5 pfu.
Outlook For December 15-21
R1 or greater radio blackouts are possible throughout the forecast period.
There is a chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions on 28 Dec through 09 Jan in response to recurrent high speed solar wind features.
There is a slight chance for an S1 (minor) or greater space radiation event through the forecast period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 15 0655 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-12-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Dec 15 170 8 3
2014 Dec 16 170 8 3
2014 Dec 17 170 10 3
2014 Dec 18 165 12 4
2014 Dec 19 160 10 3
2014 Dec 20 165 10 3
2014 Dec 21 170 5 2
2014 Dec 22 165 5 2
2014 Dec 23 155 5 2
2014 Dec 24 150 5 2
2014 Dec 25 150 5 2
2014 Dec 26 145 5 2
2014 Dec 27 140 5 2
2014 Dec 28 140 8 3
2014 Dec 29 140 8 3
2014 Dec 30 135 8 3
2014 Dec 31 135 10 3
2015 Jan 01 135 10 3
2015 Jan 02 140 12 4
2015 Jan 03 140 25 5
2015 Jan 04 140 15 4
2015 Jan 05 145 10 3
2015 Jan 06 155 8 3
2015 Jan 07 155 8 3
2015 Jan 08 160 10 4
2015 Jan 09 165 10 4
2015 Jan 10 165 8 3
(NOAA)
