Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 May 11 0537 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 May 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels during the period. The largest and most active regions on the solar disk this period were Regions 2335 (S15, L=192, class/area Eac/310 on 04 May) and 2339 (N13, L=129, class/area Fkc/900 on 08 May). Region 2335 began the period reaching its peak in area and magnetic complexity (Beta-gamma). On 05 May it produced two M-class flares; an M1 at 05/1425 UTC and an M2 at 05/1724 UTC. By 06 May, Region 2335 was in decay and ended the period as a simple Cro spot class with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 2339 was in a growth phase since it rotated around the NE limb on 05 May. This region was responsible for multiple M-class flaring spanning 05-06 May and an impulsive X2 flare at 05/2211 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (1163 km/s), a 590 sfu Tenflare and a non-Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 05/2224 UTC off the NE limb. Solar activity declined to low levels from 07-10 May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 04-05 May and at normal levels from 06-10 May.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the period. The period started off with quiet conditions on 04 and 05 May under a nominal solar wind regime. At 06/0053 UTC, a shock was observed at the ACE satellite associated with a 02 May CME that occurred as a result of an 18 degree filament eruption observed between 02/1500-1830 UTC. Total field increased to a maximum of 18 nT at 06/0614 UTC while the Bz component went southward to a maximum
of -13 nT at 06/1216 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from 363 km/s to around 490 km/s. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was subsequently observed at 06/0143 UTC with a 31 nT deviation in the Boulder magnetometer. As a result, quiet to minor storm levels were observed on 06 May. By late on 06 May and through 07 May, the Bz component deflected north and remained so as CME effects diminished. Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed through 10 May when the total field became enhanced once again. Total field increased to 14 nT with prolonged periods of southward Bz. No appreciable increase in solar wind speed was observed with this event, however. The geomagnetic
field was quiet on 07 May, quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 May and quiet to active on 10 May.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 May - 06 June 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 11-18 May as Region 2339 transits the visible disk and again from 31 May-06 June when Region 2339 returns.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 13-18 May and again from 21-23 May due to coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 11 through 14 May with periods of minor storming (G1-Minor) likely on 12-13 May due to a combination of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are also expected from 18-19 May and 02 -03 June with possible periods of minor storming on 18 May due to multiple recurrent CH HSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 11 0538 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-05-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 May 11 160 12 4
2015 May 12 165 25 5
2015 May 13 160 25 5
2015 May 14 155 12 4
2015 May 15 155 8 3
2015 May 16 155 5 2
2015 May 17 145 5 2
2015 May 18 135 20 5
2015 May 19 125 12 4
2015 May 20 120 8 3
2015 May 21 115 5 2
2015 May 22 115 5 2
2015 May 23 115 5 2
2015 May 24 110 5 2
2015 May 25 110 5 2
2015 May 26 110 5 2
2015 May 27 110 5 2
2015 May 28 115 5 2
2015 May 29 120 8 3
2015 May 30 120 8 3
2015 May 31 120 5 2
2015 Jun 01 130 8 3
2015 Jun 02 140 15 4
2015 Jun 03 140 10 3
2015 Jun 04 140 5 2
2015 Jun 05 145 5 2
2015 Jun 06 150 5 2
(NOAA)
