Monday, August 03, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 0155 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 July - 02 August 2015

Solar activity was dominated by B-class flare activity (very low  levels) throughout the majority of the summary period, however, Region 2390 (S17, L=199, class/area=Dai/170 on 27 Jul) produced a
single C1 flare (low levels) at 01/2005 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the summary period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 31 Aug with moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the summary period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 27, 30-31 Jul and 02 Aug in response to an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of multiple weak coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). Geomagnetic field activity remained at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the summary period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 August - 29 August 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low (B-class flare activity) to low levels (C-class flare activity) throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels on 07-08, 17-21, 23, and 26-29 Aug in response to enhanced geomagnetic field activity cause by the
influence of multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). High electron flux levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 28 Aug with active levels expected on 06-07, 17, 20, 26-27, and 29 Aug, all due to the influence of
multiple recurrent CH HSSs. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 03 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC erb contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-08-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Aug 03     100          10          3
2015 Aug 04     100           8          3
2015 Aug 05     100           5          2
2015 Aug 06     105          12          4
2015 Aug 07     105          18          4
2015 Aug 08     105           8          3
2015 Aug 09     100           5          2
2015 Aug 10      95           5          2
2015 Aug 11      95           5          2
2015 Aug 12      90           5          2
2015 Aug 13      90           5          2
2015 Aug 14      90           5          2
2015 Aug 15      95           5          2
2015 Aug 16      95           5          2
2015 Aug 17      95          12          4
2015 Aug 18      95          10          3
2015 Aug 19      90           8          3
2015 Aug 20      90          12          4
2015 Aug 21      95          10          3
2015 Aug 22      95           5          2
2015 Aug 23     100           8          3
2015 Aug 24     100           5          2
2015 Aug 25     105           5          2
2015 Aug 26     105          12          4
2015 Aug 27     105          18          4
2015 Aug 28     100          25          5
2015 Aug 29     100          12          4
(NOAA)