Monday, December 04, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Dec 04 1640 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 November - 03 December 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels. The only spotted region on the disk, Region 2689 (N13, L=108, class/area Cao/060 on 26 Nov), was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at  moderate flux levels throughout the period. A maximum flux of 602 pfu was observed at 27/1435 UTC.  Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels through the period. Isolated unsettled and active periods were observed on 28 and 30 Nov and again on 01-02 Dec due to waning, negative
polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed averaged about 425 km/s through the period with a peak speed of 525 km/s observed midday on 30 Nov and again early on 01 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 December - 30 December 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels though out the outlook period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 05-10, 12-17 and 19-21 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected
for the remainder of the outlook period.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor) levels on 04-06 Dec and 18 Dec with G2 (Moderate) levels expected on 04-05 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 07-08, 11-14, 17-21 and 27-28 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 04 1640 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-12-04
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Dec 04      70          32          6
2017 Dec 05      70          48          6
2017 Dec 06      70          18          5
2017 Dec 07      70          12          4
2017 Dec 08      70           8          3
2017 Dec 09      70           5          2
2017 Dec 10      70           5          2
2017 Dec 11      70          12          4
2017 Dec 12      72          15          4
2017 Dec 13      75          12          4
2017 Dec 14      75           8          3
2017 Dec 15      75           5          2
2017 Dec 16      75           5          2
2017 Dec 17      74           8          3
2017 Dec 18      73          25          5
2017 Dec 19      73          10          3
2017 Dec 20      73           8          3
2017 Dec 21      74           8          3
2017 Dec 22      74           5          2
2017 Dec 23      76           5          2
2017 Dec 24      74           5          2
2017 Dec 25      72           5          2
2017 Dec 26      73           5          2
2017 Dec 27      72          10          4
2017 Dec 28      70           8          3
2017 Dec 29      70           5          2
2017 Dec 30      70           5          2
(NOAA)