Monday, July 06, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jul 06 0150 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 June - 05 July 2020

Solar activity was very low. Region 2766 (N06 L=117, class/area Bxo/beta on 04 Jul) was the only active region on the visible disk. The region was in decay at the end of the reporting period.

Other activity included a DFS, approximately 18 degrees in length, which erupted in the SE quadrant beginning around 05/0630 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery showed the related CME signature after 05/1412 UTC. Analysis for an Earth-directed component is
ongoing.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled. Unsettled levels were observed on 01 Jul due to sustained southward Bz and on 04-05 Jul in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet levels under nominal solar windco nditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 July - 01 August 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal background to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled  levels. A recurrent positive polarity CH HSS is expected to cause isolated unsettled levels on 06 Jul and again on 31 Jul - 01 Aug. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. Analysis and modeling of the 5 Jul CME is not complete and the presence of an Earth-directed component is possible.



Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 06 0150 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-07-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jul 06      69           8          3
2020 Jul 07      69           5          2
2020 Jul 08      69           5          2
2020 Jul 09      69           5          2
2020 Jul 10      69           5          2
2020 Jul 11      69           5          2
2020 Jul 12      69           5          2
2020 Jul 13      68           5          2
2020 Jul 14      68           5          2
2020 Jul 15      68           5          2
2020 Jul 16      68           5          2
2020 Jul 17      68           5          2
2020 Jul 18      68           5          2
2020 Jul 19      68           5          2
2020 Jul 20      68           5          2
2020 Jul 21      68           5          2
2020 Jul 22      68           5          2
2020 Jul 23      68           5          2
2020 Jul 24      68           5          2
2020 Jul 25      69           5          2
2020 Jul 26      69           5          2
2020 Jul 27      69           5          2
2020 Jul 28      69           5          2
2020 Jul 29      69           5          2
2020 Jul 30      69           5          2
2020 Jul 31      69          12          3
2020 Aug 01      69          10          3
(NOAA)