Monday, August 17, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Aug 17 0158 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 August 2020

Solar activity was at very low levels on 10-14 and 16 Aug. Low levels were observed on 15 Aug due to a C2 flare from Region 2770 (N23, L=24, class/area Cso/70 on 07 Aug.

Coronal dimming near S30E30 was observed in GOES-16 SUVI 195 imagery around 16/1700 UTC. An associated CME signature was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1812 UTC and in the STEREO-A COR2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 16/1824 UTC. Analysis of this event remains underway at the time of this writing. No other Earth-directed CME activity was detected during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 10-11 Aug due to coronal hole high speed stream influence. The maximum flux of the period was 2,950 pfu and observed at 10/1550 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 12-16 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels throughout the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 August - 12 September 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 01-07 Sep due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active on 30 Aug, unsettled on 19-20 Aug and 29, 31 Aug-all due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream influence. Quiet levels are also expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Aug 17 0158 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-08-17
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Aug 17      70           5          2
2020 Aug 18      70           5          2
2020 Aug 19      70          10          3
2020 Aug 20      70          10          3
2020 Aug 21      70           5          2
2020 Aug 22      70           5          2
2020 Aug 23      70           5          2
2020 Aug 24      71           5          2
2020 Aug 25      71           5          2
2020 Aug 26      71           5          2
2020 Aug 27      71           5          2
2020 Aug 28      72           5          2
2020 Aug 29      72           8          3
2020 Aug 30      73          16          4
2020 Aug 31      73           8          3
2020 Sep 01      73           5          2
2020 Sep 02      73           5          2
2020 Sep 03      73           5          2
2020 Sep 04      73           5          2
2020 Sep 05      73           5          2
2020 Sep 06      72           5          2
2020 Sep 07      72           5          2
2020 Sep 08      72           5          2
2020 Sep 09      72           5          2
2020 Sep 10      71           5          2
2020 Sep 11      71           5          2
2020 Sep 12      70           5          2
(NOAA)