Monday, June 21, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Jun 21 0114 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 June 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels. The two regions on the disk, Region 2833 (N24, L=210, class/area Cso/120 on 19 Jun) and Region 2834 (N20, L=281, class/area Bxo/010 on 18 Jun) were both quiet and are stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 14-16 Jun and high levels on 17-20 Jun. A maximum flux of 4,860 pfu was observed at 17/1435 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 14 Jun through midday on 15 Jun. Unsettled to Gi (Minor) storm levels were observed midday on 15 Jun due to influences from the arrival of a recurrent,
negative polarity CH HSS. 

Unsettled to active levels continued through 16 Jun into early on 17 Jun. Solar wind speeds reached near 625 km/s, with total field readings of 15 nT and Bz readings of -10 nT, all on 16 Jun. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 June - 17 July 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low through the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 21-23 Jun and on 14-17 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS influences. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 24 Jun, 04 Jul, 09-10 Jul, and on 12-13 Jul due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
Issued: 2021 Jun 21 0114 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-06-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Jun 21      78           5          2
2021 Jun 22      78           5          2
2021 Jun 23      78           5          2
2021 Jun 24      78           8          3
2021 Jun 25      78           5          2
2021 Jun 26      76           5          2
2021 Jun 27      76           5          2
2021 Jun 28      76           5          2
2021 Jun 29      78           5          2
2021 Jun 30      78           5          2
2021 Jul 01      78           5          2
2021 Jul 02      78           5          2
2021 Jul 03      78           5          2
2021 Jul 04      75          12          4
2021 Jul 05      75           5          2
2021 Jul 06      75           5          2
2021 Jul 07      75           5          2
2021 Jul 08      78           5          2
2021 Jul 09      78           8          3
2021 Jul 10      78           8          3
2021 Jul 11      78           5          2
2021 Jul 12      75          15          4
2021 Jul 13      75          12          4
2021 Jul 14      75           5          2
2021 Jul 15      75           5          2
2021 Jul 16      75           5          2
2021 Jul 17      75           5          2
(NOAA)