Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Dec 11 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 December 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period with Regions 3511 (S22, L=216, class/area=Fsi/180 on 09 Dec) and 3513 (N19, L=220, class/area=Eai/220 on 10 Dec) being the primary sources of flare activity. The largest event observed was an M5.4/1b flare (R2/Moderate) at 08/2307 UTC from Region 3511. In addition to the M5.5 event, Region 3511 produced four R1 (Minor) events over 08-10 Dec. Region 3513 produced five R1 (Minor) events over 05-06 Dec. Despite the flare activity and a number of filament eruptions observed throughout the week, no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels 08-09 Dec, with normal to moderate levels observed on 04-07 and 10 Dec.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels over 04-06 Dec due to a combination of weak CME (from 01 Dec) influences on 04-05 Dec and negative polarity CH HSS influences on 05-06 Dec. Quiet conditions and a background solar wind environment prevailed over 07-10 Dec.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 December - 06 January 2024
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate to high levels on 11-12 Dec due to the flare potential of Regions 3511 and 3513. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare events throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled over 11-14 Dec due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected over 15-20 Dec, with active conditions likely on 18 Dec and G1 (Minor) storms likely on 19 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 22 Dec, with active conditions likely on 23 Dec, due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 30 Dec-02 Jan, with active conditions likely on 01 Jan, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels and background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Dec 11 0118 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-12-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Dec 11 125 12 3
2023 Dec 12 120 12 3
2023 Dec 13 118 12 3
2023 Dec 14 120 8 3
2023 Dec 15 122 5 2
2023 Dec 16 122 12 3
2023 Dec 17 124 12 3
2023 Dec 18 125 15 4
2023 Dec 19 130 25 5
2023 Dec 20 135 8 3
2023 Dec 21 135 5 2
2023 Dec 22 135 20 5
2023 Dec 23 140 10 4
2023 Dec 24 140 5 2
2023 Dec 25 150 5 2
2023 Dec 26 150 5 2
2023 Dec 27 155 5 2
2023 Dec 28 150 5 2
2023 Dec 29 145 5 2
2023 Dec 30 140 8 3
2023 Dec 31 140 8 3
2024 Jan 01 140 10 4
2024 Jan 02 140 8 3
2024 Jan 03 135 5 2
2024 Jan 04 135 5 2
2024 Jan 05 135 5 2
2024 Jan 06 130 5 2
(NOAA)
