Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 15 0608 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 January 2024
Solar activity was at low levels on 08-09 Jan, reached moderate levels on 10-12 Jan and returned back to low levels on 13-14 Jan. Multiple M1 flares (R1/Minor) occurred on 10-12 Jan from Regions 3538 (N20, L=176, class/area Cai/080 on 09 Jan), 3539 (N10, L=139, class/area Dai/230 on 11 Jan), and 3547 (N19, L=064, class/area Cso/050 on 12 Jan). Two CMEs were modeled over the period from 09-10 Jan with the potential for grazing blows. The first was an approximate 50-degree filament eruption centered near S42E43 that began after 09/1400 UTC. An associated CME was observed off the SE limb beginning at 09/1536 UTC. Modelling of the event showed a potential grazing late on 13 Jan. The second event was associated with a C6.5 flare at 10/1907 UTC from Region 3536 (N06, L=151,
class/area Eko/250 on 03 Jan). A subsequent CME was observed off the W limb at 10/1924 UTC. Modeling indicated the potential for a grazing late on 14 Jan.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period on 09 Jan. Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels throughout with slightly increased total field measurements between 08/1650-11/0100 UTC and between 14/0315-14/2100 UTC. Solar wind speed showed an increase from 300 km/s to nearly 470 km/s between 08/0000-11/2200 UTC. Afterward, speed, temperature, and density values appeared to be suspect due to low densities in the solar wind. A comparison with the University of Maryland
SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF/PM appeared to show a drop in solar wind speed starting late on 11 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 January - 10 February 2024
Solar activity is expected to be primarily at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares on 15 Jan-10 Feb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15 Jan-10 Feb.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on 16-18 Jan and again on 28-30 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 15 0609 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-01-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jan 15 190 5 2
2024 Jan 16 190 8 3
2024 Jan 17 185 10 4
2024 Jan 18 175 8 3
2024 Jan 19 170 5 2
2024 Jan 20 165 5 2
2024 Jan 21 162 5 2
2024 Jan 22 162 5 2
2024 Jan 23 160 5 2
2024 Jan 24 160 5 2
2024 Jan 25 165 5 2
2024 Jan 26 167 5 2
2024 Jan 27 170 5 2
2024 Jan 28 170 8 3
2024 Jan 29 170 8 3
2024 Jan 30 175 8 3
2024 Jan 31 180 5 2
2024 Feb 01 185 5 2
2024 Feb 02 185 5 2
2024 Feb 03 185 5 2
2024 Feb 04 185 5 2
2024 Feb 05 187 5 2
2024 Feb 06 185 5 2
2024 Feb 07 180 5 2
2024 Feb 08 180 5 2
2024 Feb 09 175 5 2
2024 Feb 10 175 5 2
(NOAA)
