:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 12 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 February 2024
Solar activity ranged from moderate levels to very high levels during this period. In total, one X-class flare and 18 M-class flares were observed. The largest event was an X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC from Region 3575 (S36, L=177, class/area=Dkc/270 on 05 Feb), which was beyond the SW limb at the time of the event. Region 3576 (S16, L=057, class/area=Fkc/740 on 11 Feb) was the largest and most active region this week and produced the bulk of the M-class flare activity; most notable was an M9.0 flare at 10/2307 UTC which produced an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive late on 12 Feb/early on 13 Feb. Other notable activity included a filament eruption centered near S37W02 at 08/2000 UTC which resulted in an Earth-directed CME expected to arrive on 12 Feb.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) levels following the X3.3 flare at 09/1314 UTC. The solar radiation storm began at 09/1530 UTC, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at 09/2355 UTC, and decreased below the event threshold at 11/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux persisted just below event thresholds after 11/1805 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet and unsettled on 05-06 Feb due to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS influences and the arrival of a CME from 01 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over 07-08 Feb. Quiet and unsettled levels were observed on 09 Feb with the arrival of a CME from 06 Feb late in the day. Quiet conditions were observed on 10 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 11 Feb due to the arrival of a shock associated with the 09/1314 UTC X3.3 flare. The interplanetary shock was observed in solar wind data at 11/0121 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 350 km/s to 439 km/s, eventually reaching 634 km/s by 11/1410 UTC. Total field increased from 4 nT to 19 nT initially, while the Bz component indicated a mostly negative trend to a low of -15 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at Earth with a 40 nT deviation (Boulder Magnetometer) at 11/0211 UTC.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 February - 09 March 2024
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate throughout the period with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-17 Feb, with normal to moderate levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 12-14 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 13 Feb, due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 08 and 10 Feb. Quiet and unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 12 0224 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-02-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Feb 12 182 18 5
2024 Feb 13 180 38 6
2024 Feb 14 180 23 5
2024 Feb 15 180 5 2
2024 Feb 16 175 5 2
2024 Feb 17 165 5 2
2024 Feb 18 160 5 2
2024 Feb 19 160 5 2
2024 Feb 20 160 5 2
2024 Feb 21 160 5 2
2024 Feb 22 165 5 2
2024 Feb 23 160 5 2
2024 Feb 24 150 5 2
2024 Feb 25 150 5 2
2024 Feb 26 150 8 3
2024 Feb 27 150 7 3
2024 Feb 28 150 5 2
2024 Feb 29 155 5 2
2024 Mar 01 160 5 2
2024 Mar 02 165 5 2
2024 Mar 03 170 5 2
2024 Mar 04 170 5 2
2024 Mar 05 170 5 2
2024 Mar 06 170 5 2
2024 Mar 07 170 5 2
2024 Mar 08 170 5 2
2024 Mar 09 170 5 2
(NOAA)
