:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 March 2024
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 14 Mar due to an M1.0/sf flare at 14/0604 UTC from Region 3599 (S12, L=065, class/area Dao/230 on 12 Mar). On 16 Mar, Moderate levels were once again seen as an M3.5 and an M1.1 occurred at 16/1635 UTC and 16/2155 UTC from a region just beyond the SE limb. Region 3599 was also responsible for a series of CMEs just beyond the SW limb which occurred at 15/0210 UTC and 15/0328 UTC. Modelling of the event indicated no Earth-directed component, however, an associated minor solar radiation storm (S1) was observed. Other activity included an approximate 35 degree filament channel eruption centered near S28W25 beginning at 17/0100 UTC. Two subsequent CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the SSE and SW limbs at 17/0312 UTC and 17/0336 UTC, respectively. Modelling indicated possible glancing blows late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event above the 10 pfu (S1/Minor) threshold as a result of activity from Region 3599 beyond the SW limb early on 15 Mar. The event began at 15/2050 UTC, reached a peak flux of 16.7 pfu at 16/0635 UTC, and ended at 16/1505 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 11 Mar due to CH HSS influence. A peak of 1,420 pfu was observed at 11/1605 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed decreased on 11 Mar as weak negative polarity CH HSS influence diminished. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed midday on 11 Mar followed by another mild increase in solar wind speed and total field on 12-13 Mar. Solar wind speed reached a maximum around 484 km/s by 14/1350 UTC with total field near 9 nT early on 14 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled periods on 12 and 14 Mar and an isolated active period early on 15 Mar. Solar wind speed slowly decreased around 290 km/s with total field values below 5 nT by the end of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 March - 13 April 2024
There is a chance for moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels through 31 Mar, mainly due to the flare potential of Region 3614 (N16, L=223, class/area Hax/080 on 17 Mar) and an unnumbered region rotating onto the SE limb. Low levels with a slight chance of
M-class flares are likely on 01-13 Apr.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-08 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with G1 (Minor) storming likely, on 20-21 Mar due to activity from the 17 Mar CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on 28-29 Mar, 03-05 Apr, and 09-11 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 18 0617 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-03-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Mar 18 155 5 2
2024 Mar 19 160 5 2
2024 Mar 20 162 18 5
2024 Mar 21 165 16 5
2024 Mar 22 160 5 2
2024 Mar 23 155 5 2
2024 Mar 24 155 5 2
2024 Mar 25 152 5 2
2024 Mar 26 160 5 2
2024 Mar 27 160 5 2
2024 Mar 28 162 12 3
2024 Mar 29 165 8 3
2024 Mar 30 165 5 2
2024 Mar 31 160 5 2
2024 Apr 01 155 5 2
2024 Apr 02 155 5 2
2024 Apr 03 155 15 3
2024 Apr 04 158 12 3
2024 Apr 05 160 12 3
2024 Apr 06 160 5 2
2024 Apr 07 162 5 2
2024 Apr 08 155 5 2
2024 Apr 09 150 8 3
2024 Apr 10 145 8 3
2024 Apr 11 148 8 3
2024 Apr 12 148 5 2
2024 Apr 13 152 5 2
(NOAA)
