Monday, January 27, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jan 27 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 January 2025



Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Moderate levels were observed on 21 Jan from Region 3967 (S14, L=148, class/area Eai/110 on 21 Jan) with an M3.3/Sf observed at  21/1039 UTC. This flare also produced a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 565 km/s. Region 3961 (S09, L=181, class/area Fkc/800 on 20 Jan) produced an M1.3/1f at 22/1108 UTC with a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 561 km/s. This region also produced an M2.7/1f flare at 24/2104 UTC. All other active regions were either quiet or contributed only C-class events. Potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 21 and 22 Jan. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbits.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 20, 22, and 23 Jan. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 21 and 24-26 Jan. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods were reached on 20 Jan with unsettled levels observed on 20-24 Jan. Quiet levels were observed on 25-26 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic activity were attributed to influence from multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 22 February 2025

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R1-Minor). Moderate levels were observed on 21 Jan from Region 3967 (S14, L=148, class/area Eai/110 on 21 Jan) with an M3.3/Sf observed at 21/1039 UTC. This flare also produced a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 565 km/s. Region 3961 (S09, L=181, class/area Fkc/800 on 20 Jan) produced an M1.3/1f at 22/1108 UTC with a Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 561 km/s. This region also produced an M2.7/1f flare at 24/2104 UTC. All other active regions were either quiet or contributed only to C-class events. Potential Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 21 and 22 Jan. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbits.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 20, 22 and 23 Jan. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 21 and 24-26 Jan. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods were reached on 20 Jan with unsettled levels observed on 20-24 Jan. Quiet levels were observed on 25-26 Jan. All elevations in geomagnetic activity were attributed to influence from multiple, negative polarity CH HSSs. 

Product:  27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jan 27 0230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-01-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jan 27     165           5          2
2025 Jan 28     160           5          2
2025 Jan 29     155          10          3
2025 Jan 30     150           5          2
2025 Jan 31     150          12          3
2025 Feb 01     145          12          3
2025 Feb 02     150          20          5
2025 Feb 03     165          15          4
2025 Feb 04     160          12          4
2025 Feb 05     165          12          4
2025 Feb 06     160          10          3
2025 Feb 07     155           5          2
2025 Feb 08     150           5          2
2025 Feb 09     145          10          3
2025 Feb 10     140          12          4
2025 Feb 11     140          18          5
2025 Feb 12     140          15          4
2025 Feb 13     140          20          5
2025 Feb 14     140          12          4
2025 Feb 15     145          15          4
2025 Feb 16     145          15          3
2025 Feb 17     150          10          3
2025 Feb 18     150          10          3
2025 Feb 19     155          10          3
2025 Feb 20     165           5          2
2025 Feb 21     170           5          2
2025 Feb 22     170           5          2
(NOAA)