Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 April 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period with B-class flare activity observed from Rgn 2814 (S22, L=008, class/area Cro/090 on 14 Apr), Rgn 2815 (S21, L=344, class/area Bxo/010 on 16 Apr) and Rgn 2816 (S24, L=264, class/area Cao/080 on 16 Apr). The largest event of the period was a B9 x-ray event observed at 17/1717 UTC from a region beyond the ESE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II radio signature with an estimated shock velocity of 382 km/s and a slow-moving, non-Earth directed CME off the E limb. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 12-16 Apr. High levels were observed on 17-18 Apr with a maximum flux reading of 14,078 pfu at 18/1905 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 12-14 Apr with an isolated active period observed late on the 14th. Unsettled to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels were reached early on 15 Apr due to possible effects from the 10 Apr CME. Mostly unsettled to active levels were observed on 16-18 Apr, with G1 (Minor) storm levels observed on 16 and 17 Apr. This activity was all due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influence. During this activity, wind speeds reached 600 km/s, the total field reached maximums of 13 nT and the Bz component reached -10 nT at times. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 April - 15 May 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels during the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 19-24 Apr and 13-15 May due to high-speed solar winds. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated for 25-30 Apr and 01-12 May. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 19-20 Apr, 23-24 Apr, 27-28 Apr, 04 May, 08 May and 11-15 May, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 13-14 May. This activity is all due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2021-04-19

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2021 Apr 19      78          12          4

2021 Apr 20      75           8          3

2021 Apr 21      75           5          2

2021 Apr 22      72           5          2

2021 Apr 23      70           8          3

2021 Apr 24      70          12          4

2021 Apr 25      70           5          2

2021 Apr 26      70           5          2

2021 Apr 27      68          10          3

2021 Apr 28      68           8          3

2021 Apr 29      68           5          2

2021 Apr 30      68           5          2

2021 May 01      68           5          2

2021 May 02      68           5          2

2021 May 03      70           5          2

2021 May 04      72          15          4

2021 May 05      72           5          2

2021 May 06      72           5          2

2021 May 07      72           5          2

2021 May 08      72           8          3

2021 May 09      72           5          2

2021 May 10      75           5          2

2021 May 11      75           8          3

2021 May 12      75          12          4

2021 May 13      75          20          5

2021 May 14      75          30          5

2021 May 15      75          15          4

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2021 Jan 04 0144 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December - 03 January 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Regions 2794 (S16, L=346, class/area=Hsx/180 on 28 Dec) and 2795 (S19, L=317, class/area=Cao/beta on 29 Dec) produced only B-class flare activity throughout the week. 

Multiple filament eruptions were observed between S30-50, near center disk, on 01-02 Jan. Two CME signatures with likely earth-directed components were detected in LASCO C2 imagery at 01/2312 UTC and 02/1136 UTC. CME analysis and model outputs suggest

arrival of these CMEs late on 05 Jan/early on 06 Jan. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 29-30 Dec, and quiet throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 January - 30 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, throughout the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 09-12 and 20-22 Jan. Normal and normal-to-moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 05 Jan, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 06 Jan, due to the anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs from 01-02 Jan. Active conditions are expected on 17-20 Jan due to the influence of a

positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet-to-unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2021 Jan 04 0144 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2021-01-04

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2021 Jan 04      80           5          2

2021 Jan 05      78          10          4

2021 Jan 06      78          18          5

2021 Jan 07      78           8          3

2021 Jan 08      78           5          2

2021 Jan 09      78           5          2

2021 Jan 10      78           5          2

2021 Jan 11      78           5          2

2021 Jan 12      78           5          2

2021 Jan 13      78           5          2

2021 Jan 14      78           5          2

2021 Jan 15      80           5          2

2021 Jan 16      80           5          2

2021 Jan 17      82          10          4

2021 Jan 18      82          10          4

2021 Jan 19      82          10          4

2021 Jan 20      82          10          4

2021 Jan 21      82           5          2

2021 Jan 22      82           5          2

2021 Jan 23      82           5          2

2021 Jan 24      82           5          2

2021 Jan 25      82           8          3

2021 Jan 26      82           8          3

2021 Jan 27      82           5          2

2021 Jan 28      80           5          2

2021 Jan 29      80           5          2

2021 Jan 30      80           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Sep 07 0121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 August - 06 September 2020

Solar activity was very low for the highlight period. No spotted regions were present on the visible disk. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels through the highlight period. A peak flux of 29,370 pfu was observed at 02/1625 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to G1 (minor) storm levels on 31 Aug, unsettled to active levels on 01 September and quiet to unsettled levels on 02 Sep; all due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. During this period of activity, solar wind speeds reached a peak of 619 km/s midday on 01 Sep, total field reached a maximum of 8 nT at midday on 31 Aug and the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -7 nT midday on 31 Aug. Phi angle was in a mostly positive solar sector. 

Quiet to isolated unsettled levels were observed from 03-06 Sep as CH HSS effects slowly waned. Solar wind parameters gradually returned to nominal levels by the end of the highlight period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low for the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is  expected to be at moderate to high levels on 07-09 Sep and again on 26 Sep - 03 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 18-19 Sep, unsettled to active levels on 23-29 Sep, with G1 (minor) storm levels possible on 27 sep, all due to recurrent CH HS influences. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at
mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Sep 07 0121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-09-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Sep 07      70           5          2
2020 Sep 08      70           5          2
2020 Sep 09      70           5          2
2020 Sep 10      70           5          2
2020 Sep 11      70           5          2
2020 Sep 12      70           5          2
2020 Sep 13      70           5          2
2020 Sep 14      70           5          2
2020 Sep 15      70           5          2
2020 Sep 16      70           5          2
2020 Sep 17      70           5          2
2020 Sep 18      70           8          3
2020 Sep 19      70           8          3
2020 Sep 20      70           5          2
2020 Sep 21      70           5          2
2020 Sep 22      70           5          2
2020 Sep 23      70           8          3
2020 Sep 24      70          10          3
2020 Sep 25      70          15          4
2020 Sep 26      70          10          4
2020 Sep 27      70          25          5
2020 Sep 28      70          15          4
2020 Sep 29      70          10          3
2020 Sep 30      70           5          2
2020 Oct 01      70           8          3
2020 Oct 02      70           5          2
2020 Oct 03      70           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 October 2018

Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period with a maximum flux of 67 pfu observed at 26/2110 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period observed early on 22 Oct. Solar wind was at nominal levels through the period ranging from approximately 300-430 km/s
with total field between 1 nT and 8 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 October - 24 November 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-09 Nov and again on 12-16 Nov due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 29-31 Oct, 03-07 Nov, and 09-11 Nov with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 03 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 29 0407 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-10-29
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Oct 29      69           8          3
2018 Oct 30      69          12          4
2018 Oct 31      69          10          4
2018 Nov 01      69           5          2
2018 Nov 02      69           5          2
2018 Nov 03      69          20          5
2018 Nov 04      69          15          4
2018 Nov 05      68          15          4
2018 Nov 06      70          15          4
2018 Nov 07      70           8          3
2018 Nov 08      70           5          2
2018 Nov 09      70          12          4
2018 Nov 10      70           8          3
2018 Nov 11      70          10          4
2018 Nov 12      70           5          2
2018 Nov 13      70           5          2
2018 Nov 14      70           5          2
2018 Nov 15      70           5          2
2018 Nov 16      70           5          2
2018 Nov 17      70           5          2
2018 Nov 18      69           5          2
2018 Nov 19      69           5          2
2018 Nov 20      68           5          2
2018 Nov 21      68           5          2
2018 Nov 22      68           5          2
2018 Nov 23      68           5          2
2018 Nov 24      68           5          2
(NOAA)