Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Weekly Propagation Forecast Update




Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2007 Nov 06 2153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 October - 04 November 2007

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk remained spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the period.

The period began with the geomagnetic field at quiet levels. By midday on 29 October, activity increased to unsettled to active levels, and remained so through late on 30 October. ACE solar wind data indicated the 29 - 30 October activity was the result of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). The HSS was preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), which reached the ACE spacecraft at approximately 29/1800 UTC. IMF changes associated with the CIR included increased Bt (peak 8.4 nT at 29/2044 UTC) and increased Bz variability (minimum -9.0 nT at 29/1939 UTC). A density increase was also associated with the CIR (peak 6.1 p/cc at 29/2011 UTC). Solar wind velocities increased during 29 - 30 October and has
reached a peak of 609 km/sec at 30/0315 UTC. The HSS began to gradually subside late on 30 October.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 November - 03 December 2007

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels
during 16 November - 02 December.

Activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during 07 - 13 November. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 14 November. A further increase to unsettled to active levels is forecast for 15 - 16 November due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 17 - 20 November. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm levels during 21 - 22 November due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during 23 - 24 November as the high-speed stream subsides. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 25 - 26 November as another recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. From 27 November - 03 December, mostly quiet conditions are expected.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2007 Nov 06 2153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2007 Nov 06
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2007 Nov 07 68 5 2
2007 Nov 08 68 8 3
2007 Nov 09 68 5 2
2007 Nov 10 68 5 2
2007 Nov 11 68 5 2
2007 Nov 12 68 5 2
2007 Nov 13 68 5 2
2007 Nov 14 68 10 3
2007 Nov 15 68 15 4
2007 Nov 16 68 15 4
2007 Nov 17 68 5 2
2007 Nov 18 68 5 2
2007 Nov 19 68 8 3
2007 Nov 20 68 8 3
2007 Nov 21 68 20 5
2007 Nov 22 68 15 4
2007 Nov 23 67 10 3
2007 Nov 24 67 8 3
2007 Nov 25 67 15 4
2007 Nov 26 67 12 3
2007 Nov 27 67 8 3
2007 Nov 28 67 5 2
2007 Nov 29 67 5 2
2007 Nov 30 67 5 2
2007 Dec 01 67 5 2
2007 Dec 02 67 5 2
2007 Dec 03 67 5 2
(NOAA)