Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Oct 20 1002 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 October 2014
Solar activity ranged from very low to high during the period. Region 2192 (S13, L=251, class/area=Fkc/1560 on 19 Oct) produced the vast majority of the flare activity throughout the week. These events included several low and mid level C-class flares, a M1 (R1-minor) flare at 14/1837 UTC, a long duration M2 (R1-Minor) flare 14/2121 UTC, a M4 (R1-Minor) flare 16/1303 UTC, a M1/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 18/0758 UTC, and finally, a long duration X1/Sn flare at 19/0503 UTC.
The M1 (R1-minor) flare at 14/1837 UTC had an associated Tenflare (1300 sfu), while the long duration M2 (R1-Minor) flare 14/2121 UTC had an associated Tenflare of 180 sfu. However, due to Region 2192's proximity the east limb, none of the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) appeared to have an Earthward component and none were expected to have significant impacts at Earth. Neither the impulsive M4 (R1-Minor) flare 16/1303 UTC nor the long duration M1/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 18/0758 UTC had reportable radio signatures associated with them. Nearly simultaneous with the M1 flare, an 8 degree long filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery erupting along along a channel, centered near N15W10, between 18/0740-0938 UTC. LASCO C2 imagery observed a narrow CME lifting off the NW limb, first visible at 18/0912 UTC. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggested the CME was well off the Sun-Earth line was is not expected to impact Earth.
SDO/AIA imagery of the long duration X1/Sn flare at 19/0503 UTC event suggested that the bulk of the ejecta was reabsorbed or directed well south and east of the Sun-Earth line. SOHO/LASCO
coronagraph imagery confirmed what was observed from the SDO/AIA spacecraft as no obvious CME was detected associated with the X-flare. The remaining regions on the visible disk were generally stable and unremarkable.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 14, 18, and 19 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of active geomagnetic field activity were observed on 18 Oct (0000-0300 UTC) as a result of solar sector variability. Minor storm levels were observed on 14 Oct (1800-2100 UTC and 2100-2400 UTC) and 15 Oct (0000-0300 UTC) as the result of the glancing blow passage of the CME observed leaving the sun on 10 Oct, combined with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 October - 15 November 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) during the forecast period, with a slight chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater) for 20-29 Oct and 11-15 Nov due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2192 (S13, L=251).
A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor and above) at geosynchronous orbit exists for 20-29 Oct and 11-15 Nov due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2192 (S13, L=251).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels possible from 21-25 Oct due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 20-21 Oct and 24 Oct-15 Nov. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22-23 Oct due to CH HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 20 1002 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-10-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Oct 20 175 15 3
2014 Oct 21 180 12 3
2014 Oct 22 180 15 4
2014 Oct 23 180 15 4
2014 Oct 24 180 12 3
2014 Oct 25 175 10 3
2014 Oct 26 175 8 3
2014 Oct 27 170 10 3
2014 Oct 28 170 10 3
2014 Oct 29 165 8 3
2014 Oct 30 150 5 2
2014 Oct 31 140 5 2
2014 Nov 01 130 5 2
2014 Nov 02 130 5 2
2014 Nov 03 130 5 2
2014 Nov 04 125 8 3
2014 Nov 05 120 10 3
2014 Nov 06 120 8 3
2014 Nov 07 115 8 3
2014 Nov 08 110 5 2
2014 Nov 09 115 5 2
2014 Nov 10 120 8 3
2014 Nov 11 125 8 3
2014 Nov 12 135 5 2
2014 Nov 13 140 8 3
2014 Nov 14 145 12 3
2014 Nov 15 150 12 3
(NOAA)
