Monday, December 15, 2014

Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Three Day Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2014

            Dec 15     Dec 16     Dec 17
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          2          3     
18-21UT        2          3          3     
21-00UT        2          4          3     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014

              Dec 15  Dec 16  Dec 17
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms from one of several regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 14 2014 1933 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2014

              Dec 15        Dec 16        Dec 17
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are likely,
with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event.  Regions 2241

Product: Advisory Outlook advisory-outlook.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 15 0200 UTC
#
# Prepared by the Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-50
2014 December 14 at 6:55 p.m. MST (2014 December 15 0155 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For December 8-14

A G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm was observed on 12 December.
R1 (minor) radio blackouts were observed on 13 and 14 December.
No S1 (minor) or greater space radiation events were observed, although 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was enhanced on 14 December, with a maximum flux of 2.5 pfu.

Outlook For December 15-21

R1 or greater radio blackouts are possible throughout the forecast period.
There is a chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions on 28 Dec through 09 Jan in response to recurrent high speed solar wind features.
There is a slight chance for an S1 (minor) or greater space radiation event through the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 15 0655 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-12-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Dec 15     170           8          3
2014 Dec 16     170           8          3
2014 Dec 17     170          10          3
2014 Dec 18     165          12          4
2014 Dec 19     160          10          3
2014 Dec 20     165          10          3
2014 Dec 21     170           5          2
2014 Dec 22     165           5          2
2014 Dec 23     155           5          2
2014 Dec 24     150           5          2
2014 Dec 25     150           5          2
2014 Dec 26     145           5          2
2014 Dec 27     140           5          2
2014 Dec 28     140           8          3
2014 Dec 29     140           8          3
2014 Dec 30     135           8          3
2014 Dec 31     135          10          3
2015 Jan 01     135          10          3
2015 Jan 02     140          12          4
2015 Jan 03     140          25          5
2015 Jan 04     140          15          4
2015 Jan 05     145          10          3
2015 Jan 06     155           8          3
2015 Jan 07     155           8          3
2015 Jan 08     160          10          4
2015 Jan 09     165          10          4
2015 Jan 10     165           8          3
(NOAA)