Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 May 16 0334 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 May 2016
Solar activity was low and only C-class flare activity was observed. Region 2543 (S05, L=002, class/area=Dao/90 on 10 May) produced a C7 flare at 14/1134 UTC which was the largest event of the period. Region 2544 (N21,L=296, class/area=Dao/150 on 15 May) produced five low-level C-class flares on 15 May, the largest being a C1 at 15/0502 UTC. Region 2542 (N12, L=357, class/area=Dai/150 on 09 May) produced a long-duration C3 flare at 15/1603 UTC with an associated
filament eruption and partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that departed off of the west limb. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modelling determined that the CME did not have an Earth-directed component. There were no Earth-directed CMEs during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a slight enhancement was observed on 15 May associated with a long-duration C3 flare and filament eruption near Region 2542. A peak flux of 2 pfu was observed on 15 May at 2315 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at very high levels from 09-13 May due to the influences of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). High levels were observed on 14 May and moderate levels rounded out the week on 15
May.
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on 09 May due to the residual effects of a co-rotating interaction region and subsequent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed for 10-14 May with a nominal solar wind. A positive polarity CH HSS became connected with Earths magnetic field
on 15 May causing quiet to active conditions.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 May - 11 June 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low (B-class flares) to low (C-class flares) levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 16-23 May, 30 May-02 Jun, and 06-10 Jun. Moderate flux levels are expected for the remainder of the
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 16, 19-20 May due to the influence of recurrent positive polarity coronal hole high speed streams (CH
HSS). G1 (Minor) storm levels are also expected on 29 May and 04-05 June due to the influnce of negative polarity CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 May 16 0334 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-05-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 May 16 105 23 5
2016 May 17 100 12 3
2016 May 18 100 8 3
2016 May 19 100 18 4
2016 May 20 100 26 5
2016 May 21 95 12 3
2016 May 22 95 8 3
2016 May 23 95 5 2
2016 May 24 95 10 3
2016 May 25 95 5 2
2016 May 26 90 5 2
2016 May 27 90 5 2
2016 May 28 90 15 3
2016 May 29 95 25 5
2016 May 30 100 10 3
2016 May 31 100 5 2
2016 Jun 01 100 5 2
2016 Jun 02 95 12 4
2016 Jun 03 95 12 4
2016 Jun 04 95 35 6
2016 Jun 05 95 30 5
2016 Jun 06 95 15 4
2016 Jun 07 95 5 2
2016 Jun 08 100 5 2
2016 Jun 09 100 5 2
2016 Jun 10 95 8 3
2016 Jun 11 100 15 3
(NOAA)
