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Monday, March 20, 2017
Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 20 0323 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 March 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels with no observable spots on the solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 13-15 March. The largest flux value of the period was 8,800 pfu observed at 14/1655 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels between 300 km/s and 400 km/s through most of the period with total field near 5 nT. On 15-16 March, a slight increase in solar wind speed and total field was observed just after a solar sector boundary crossing at 15/0008 UTC.
This was likely due to a weak connection to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field increased to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased to near 433 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 16 March.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 March - 15 April 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast
period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 24 March and again from 29 March - 11 April due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 21-24 March and again from 28 March - 06 April. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23, 28-31 March and 02 April while G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 28-29 March due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 20 0324 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-03-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Mar 20 70 5 2
2017 Mar 21 70 8 3
2017 Mar 22 71 12 4
2017 Mar 23 72 20 5
2017 Mar 24 72 8 3
2017 Mar 25 72 5 2
2017 Mar 26 72 8 3
2017 Mar 27 72 8 3
2017 Mar 28 72 35 6
2017 Mar 29 72 30 6
2017 Mar 30 72 20 5
2017 Mar 31 72 18 5
2017 Apr 01 72 15 4
2017 Apr 02 72 20 5
2017 Apr 03 72 15 4
2017 Apr 04 72 12 4
2017 Apr 05 71 12 4
2017 Apr 06 70 10 3
2017 Apr 07 70 5 2
2017 Apr 08 70 5 2
2017 Apr 09 70 5 2
2017 Apr 10 70 5 2
2017 Apr 11 70 5 2
2017 Apr 12 70 5 2
2017 Apr 13 70 5 2
2017 Apr 14 70 5 2
2017 Apr 15 70 5 2
(NOAA)