Monday, March 20, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Mar 20 0323 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 March 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels with no observable spots on the solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 13-15 March. The largest flux value of the period was 8,800 pfu observed at 14/1655 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels between 300 km/s and 400 km/s through most of the period with total field near 5 nT. On 15-16 March, a slight increase in solar wind speed and total field was observed just after a solar sector boundary crossing at 15/0008 UTC.
This was likely due to a weak connection to a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field increased to 9 nT while solar wind speed increased to near 433 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 16 March.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 March - 15 April 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 24 March and again from 29 March - 11 April due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 21-24 March and again from 28 March - 06 April. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 23, 28-31 March and 02 April while G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 28-29 March due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Mar 20 0324 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-03-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Mar 20      70           5          2
2017 Mar 21      70           8          3
2017 Mar 22      71          12          4
2017 Mar 23      72          20          5
2017 Mar 24      72           8          3
2017 Mar 25      72           5          2
2017 Mar 26      72           8          3
2017 Mar 27      72           8          3
2017 Mar 28      72          35          6
2017 Mar 29      72          30          6
2017 Mar 30      72          20          5
2017 Mar 31      72          18          5
2017 Apr 01      72          15          4
2017 Apr 02      72          20          5
2017 Apr 03      72          15          4
2017 Apr 04      72          12          4
2017 Apr 05      71          12          4
2017 Apr 06      70          10          3
2017 Apr 07      70           5          2
2017 Apr 08      70           5          2
2017 Apr 09      70           5          2
2017 Apr 10      70           5          2
2017 Apr 11      70           5          2
2017 Apr 12      70           5          2
2017 Apr 13      70           5          2
2017 Apr 14      70           5          2
2017 Apr 15      70           5          2
(NOAA)