Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Apr 17 0204 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 April 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the summary period. Region 2650 (N11, L=193, class/area=Cao/40 on 11 Apr 2017) produced numerous B-class flares throughout the period and was the only active region with sunspots this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 16 Apr and high levels on 10-15 Apr with a peak flux of 3,860 pfu observed at 1715 UTC on 10 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 10, 13, and 16 Apr. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 12 and 15 Apr, and quiet to active levels were observed on 11 and 14 Apr due to waning CH HSS influence and a solar sector boundary change.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 April - 13 May 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach very high levels on 29-30 Apr and high levels on 18-28 Apr and 01, 06-12 May. Moderate flux levels are expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Apr and G1 (Minor) storm levels on 17, 24-27 Apr, and 01 May due to the influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Active conditions are expected on 19, 28 Apr and 05-06 May with generally quiet or quiet to unsettled levels likely throughout the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Apr 17 0204 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-04-17
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Apr 17      83          20          5
2017 Apr 18      88          15          3
2017 Apr 19      90          18          4
2017 Apr 20      90          12          3
2017 Apr 21      90           8          3
2017 Apr 22      85           5          2
2017 Apr 23      85          40          6
2017 Apr 24      85          30          5
2017 Apr 25      85          20          5
2017 Apr 26      85          25          5
2017 Apr 27      85          30          5
2017 Apr 28      80          15          4
2017 Apr 29      80          10          3
2017 Apr 30      80           5          2
2017 May 01      80          20          5
2017 May 02      75          10          3
2017 May 03      75          10          3
2017 May 04      75          10          3
2017 May 05      75          15          4
2017 May 06      75          15          4
2017 May 07      75           5          2
2017 May 08      75           8          3
2017 May 09      75           5          2
2017 May 10      75           5          2
2017 May 11      75           5          2
2017 May 12      75           5          2
2017 May 13      75           5          2
(NOAA)