Monday, May 13, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 May 13 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 - 12 May 2019

Solar activity was at low levels on 06, 07, and 09 May due to C-class flare activity from Region 2740 (N08, L=307 class/area Dho/280 on 05 May. The largest of the flares was a C9.9/1N at 06/0510 UTC. Mutliple eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery, but only the halo CME from 06 May was geo effective. The assymetric halo CME was first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery noted at 06/2348 UTC. Additionally, a partial halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/2036 UTC and is determined to be Earth-directed and arrive at Earth on 17 May. Solar activity was noted at very low levels for the remainder of the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 07, 11, and 12 May. Normal to moderate levels wer e observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 11 May due to the arrival of a CME from 06 May. Impact was first observed by the DSCOVR spacecraft at 10/1655 UTC. Total reached a peak of 12 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT. Solar wind  that averaged near 350 km/s throughout tranient passage. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed during the 11/00-03 UTC synoptic period, with several active periods during the remainder of the UT day. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed for the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 May - 08 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance of C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 13-23 May, and 29 May - 08 June. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 24-28 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 and 17 May due to CME arrival. Active conditions are expected on 29 May due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 May 13 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-05-13
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 May 13      76           5          2
2019 May 14      76           5          2
2019 May 15      76           5          2
2019 May 16      76           5          2
2019 May 17      76           5          2
2019 May 18      72           5          2
2019 May 19      72           5          2
2019 May 20      72           8          3
2019 May 21      68           5          2
2019 May 22      68           5          2
2019 May 23      67           5          2
2019 May 24      67           5          2
2019 May 25      67           5          2
2019 May 26      67           5          2
2019 May 27      69           5          2
2019 May 28      68          10          3
2019 May 29      69          12          4
2019 May 30      70           8          3
2019 May 31      72          10          3
2019 Jun 01      74           5          2
2019 Jun 02      76           5          2
2019 Jun 03      77           5          2
2019 Jun 04      77           5          2
2019 Jun 05      77           5          2
2019 Jun 06      77           5          2
2019 Jun 07      77           5          2
2019 Jun 08      77           5          2
(NOAA)