Monday, August 02, 2021

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Aug 02 0415 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 July - 01 August 2021

Solar activity was very low under a mostly spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 779 pfu observed at 30/1600 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with nominal solar wind parameters on 26 Jul through late on 27 Jul. At approximately 27/1830 UTC, the total field began to increase to a peak of 18 nT at 28/1038 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to near 545 km/s as a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Solar wind speed slowly diminished to nominal levels through 01 Aug. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 27 and 29 Jul and quiet to active levels on 28 Jul. The rest of the period was at quiet levels. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 August - 28 August 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for low levels on 05-18 Aug with the return of old Regions 2842 (N25, L=200) and 2845 (S15, L=195). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02-28 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 05-06, 10-11, 16-18, 23-25 Aug and active levels on 10, 24 Aug due to CH HSS activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 02 0415 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2021-08-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2021 Aug 02      72           5          2
2021 Aug 03      72           5          2
2021 Aug 04      72           5          2
2021 Aug 05      74          10          3
2021 Aug 06      75           8          3
2021 Aug 07      75           5          2
2021 Aug 08      75           5          2
2021 Aug 09      75           5          2
2021 Aug 10      75          12          4
2021 Aug 11      75          10          3
2021 Aug 12      75           5          2
2021 Aug 13      75           5          2
2021 Aug 14      75           5          2
2021 Aug 15      76           5          2
2021 Aug 16      76          10          3
2021 Aug 17      75           8          3
2021 Aug 18      74           8          3
2021 Aug 19      72           5          2
2021 Aug 20      72           5          2
2021 Aug 21      72           5          2
2021 Aug 22      72           5          2
2021 Aug 23      72           8          3
2021 Aug 24      72          12          4
2021 Aug 25      72           8          3
2021 Aug 26      72           5          2
2021 Aug 27      72           5          2
2021 Aug 28      72           5          2
(NOAA)