Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Feb 21 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 February 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to to moderate. Region 2941 (N24, L=337, class/area=Eki/370 on 10 Feb) produced both M-class (R1-Minor) events during the period, an M1/Sf at 14/1731 UTC and an M1/Sf at 15/1815 UTC. The region was the most complex on the visible disk during the past week and all significant activity was produced as it was rotating around the NW limb. Following its exit from the visible disk, a Type II radio sweep was observed from CME produced from the vicinity of the region on 18 Feb. The remaining regions on the visible disk produced only isolated low-level C-class activity and were magnetically simple. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A very weak enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux (well below the S1 threshold) was observed on 16 Feb and an additional one on 18 Feb. The weak enhancements were likely associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 14-18 Feb. Elevated geomagnetic activity on 19-20 Feb decreased the flux to normal-moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. During the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS, an isolated period of G1 was observed during the 20/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT while the Bz component rotated as far south as -11 nT at 20/0115 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to between 500-550 km/s and remained elevated through the end of the reporting period. Outside of that activity, unsettled conditions were only observed on 16 Feb
and early on 19 Feb. The remainder of the summary period was quiet. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 February - 19 March 2022

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for R1 (Minor) events on 21-23 Feb, from 21 Feb to 06 Mar due to flare potential from regions of flux near and just beyond the E limb. Very low levels are expected from 07 Mar-19 Mar. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 21-25 Feb, 04-10 Mar, and 12-17 Mar. Elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 03-04 Mar, 11 Mar and 19 Mar; active conditions are likely on 21 Feb and 12 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely over 22-23 Feb, 05-06 Mar, 13 Mar and 18 Mar. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Feb 21 0202 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-02-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Feb 21      96          12          4
2022 Feb 22     102          10          3
2022 Feb 23     102           8          3
2022 Feb 24     105           5          2
2022 Feb 25     103           5          2
2022 Feb 26     103           5          2
2022 Feb 27     103           5          2
2022 Feb 28     105           5          2
2022 Mar 01     103           5          2
2022 Mar 02     103           5          2
2022 Mar 03     105          18          5
2022 Mar 04     103          15          5
2022 Mar 05     103          10          3
2022 Mar 06     100           8          3
2022 Mar 07      98           5          2
2022 Mar 08      98           5          2
2022 Mar 09      95           5          2
2022 Mar 10      95           5          2
2022 Mar 11      95          15          5
2022 Mar 12      95          12          4
2022 Mar 13      93           8          3
2022 Mar 14      95           5          2
2022 Mar 15      95           8          3
2022 Mar 16      93           5          2
2022 Mar 17      95           5          2
2022 Mar 18      95          10          3
2022 Mar 19      95          15          5
(NOAA)