Monday, January 30, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 January 2023

Solar activity was moderate. Region 3192 (N16, L=115, class/area,  Fki/420 on 18 Jan) produced all of the M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M4.6/Sf flare at 25/1011 UTC. Additional events from Region 3192 included an M1.3/Sf flare at 25/1701 UTC, an M2.0 flare at 25/2235 UTC, and an M2.8 flare at 26/1306 UTC. Region 3192 rotated around the west limb on 26 January. There was a combined total of four M-class flares during the period, all at the R1 (Minor) level, and all from Region 3192. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled levels were observed on 23, 25-28 January, with quiet conditions on 24 and 29 January. Slightly enhanced field conditions were influenced by multiple, positive-polarity CH HSSs. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 January - 25 February 2023

Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class flare activity (R1-R2) on 30 Jan - 02 Feb. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with the return of Region 3184 (S13, L=180) on 03 Feb and remain there throughout the rest of the outlook period, due to the flare potential of numerous returning M and X-class producing regions. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30-31 January in response to recent CH HSS influence. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 02-03, 07-10 February. Unsettled levels are likely on 04, 12-13, 18, and 22-24 February. Increased geomagnetic activity is in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jan 30 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-01-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Jan 30     140           5          2
2023 Jan 31     140           5          2
2023 Feb 01     135           5          2
2023 Feb 02     135          12          4
2023 Feb 03     135          12          4
2023 Feb 04     135           8          3
2023 Feb 05     135           5          2
2023 Feb 06     140           5          2
2023 Feb 07     145          12          4
2023 Feb 08     150          12          4
2023 Feb 09     150          15          4
2023 Feb 10     155          12          4
2023 Feb 11     155           5          2
2023 Feb 12     155           8          3
2023 Feb 13     155           8          3
2023 Feb 14     150           5          2
2023 Feb 15     150           5          2
2023 Feb 16     145           5          2
2023 Feb 17     145           5          2
2023 Feb 18     140           8          3
2023 Feb 19     140           7          2
2023 Feb 20     135           5          2
2023 Feb 21     130           5          2
2023 Feb 22     130          10          3
2023 Feb 23     130          10          3
2023 Feb 24     125          10          3
2023 Feb 25     125           5          2
(NOAA)