Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Apr 17 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 April 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Moderate levels were reached on 10, 11, and 14 Apr due to M-class flaring from Regions 3272 (S21, L=102, class/area Eai/280 on 09 Apr), 3276 (S20, L=050, class/area Dao/80 on 11 Apr), and 3282 (N11, L=024, class/area Eki/530 on 16 Apr). These included an M2 at 10/0520 UTC from Region 3276, an M1/1n at 11/1016 UTC from Region 3272, and a pair of M1 flares at 14/1618 UTC and 14/2327 UTC from Region 3282. The period began with initially two numbered spot groups but grew to nine spotted regions by the end of the period.
Other activities included multiple filament eruptions and CMEs. The majority of the CMEs were determined to not be Earth-directed. However, a slow-moving partial halo CME was observed at 16/0125 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery associated with a filament eruption near
N20W40 at 15/2300 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Modeling and analysis of this event indicated the potential for a weak glancing blow on 22 Apr.
No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind parameters began with a solar sector boundary crossing around 10/0620 UTC followed by the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds increased to around 530 km/s by midday on 10 Apr before decreasing to near nominal levels by late on 11 Apr. Weaker positive polarity CH HSS conditions occurred on 14-15 Apr. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 10 Apr, quiet to unsettled levels on 11, 13-15 Apr, and quiet conditions on 12 and 16 Apr.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 April - 13 May 2023
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 17-25 Apr and again on 08-13 May due to the flare potential of Region 3282.
No proton events are expected in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 23 Apr-06 May due CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Apr due to a combination of a glancing blow from the 16 Apr CME and the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are again expected on 26 Apr-04 May, 07 May, and 11-12 May with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 26-28 Apr and 30 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 17 0333 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-04-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Apr 17 178 5 2
2023 Apr 18 170 5 2
2023 Apr 19 168 5 2
2023 Apr 20 168 5 2
2023 Apr 21 175 8 3
2023 Apr 22 172 12 4
2023 Apr 23 172 10 3
2023 Apr 24 172 5 2
2023 Apr 25 168 5 2
2023 Apr 26 162 15 5
2023 Apr 27 160 18 5
2023 Apr 28 160 15 5
2023 Apr 29 160 15 4
2023 Apr 30 165 15 5
2023 May 01 172 12 4
2023 May 02 172 10 3
2023 May 03 172 8 3
2023 May 04 170 8 3
2023 May 05 172 5 2
2023 May 06 172 5 2
2023 May 07 172 12 4
2023 May 08 178 5 2
2023 May 09 182 5 2
2023 May 10 182 5 2
2023 May 11 182 8 3
2023 May 12 182 8 3
2023 May 13 175 5 2
(NOAA)
