Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jul 17 0708 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 July 2023
Solar activity was at moderate to high levels. Moderate levels were observed on 10, 13-16 Jul. High levels occurred on 11-12 Jul due to an M6.8/Sf at 11/1808 UTC from Region 3368 (S17, L=053, class/area Dao/100 on 11 Jul), an M5.8 at 11/2215 UTC from Region 3372 (N24,
L=272, class/area Fko/770 on 14 Jul), and an M6.9/1n at 12/0855 UTC from Region 3372. The majority of the M-class activity was produced by Regions 3372 and 3363 (S21, L=346, class/area Dko/850 on 12 Jul). Region 3372 produced 11 M-class flares and Region 3363 produced 3
M-flares.
Other activity included an M2.3/2n flare at 10/0355 UTC from Region 3366 (S10, L=056, class/area Dso/130 on 10 Jul) with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial halo CME off the SW limb first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0400 UTC. Another CME was
observed at 11/1924 UTC with a southward bias that was associated with a filament eruption centered near S30E07 that began at 11/1830 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the events showed a potential arrival on 14-15 Jul.
Two more CMEs were modelled with an Earth-directed component. A C8.8 flare at 14/1844 UTC from Region 3370 (S14, L=304, class/area Dao/050 on 11 Jul) with an associated faint, partial halo CME that was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 14/1903 UTC. Lastly,
a CME associated with an M2.9 flare at 15/0741 UTC from Region 3363 that was observed off the SW limb at 15/0737 UTC. Both of the CMEs were modelled with an arrival on 18 Jul, however due to uncertainty in the model run, an arrival as early as 17 Jul was likely.
There was a greater than 10 MeV proton event reaching the S1 (Minor) levels. The event began at 16/0635 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 18 pfu at 16/0735 UTC, and ended at 16/0910 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The highest flux value was 933 pfu observed at 10/1810 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 300-400 km/s and total field between 4-9 nT through early on 13 Jul. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 10 and 12 Jul and quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Jul. Weak shocks were
observed in ACE solar wind data at 13/1109 UTC and 13/1551 UTC. Solar wind speed increased to around 300 km/s to near 350 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 14 nT at 13/1621 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 13
Jul. On 14/1526 UTC, another shock occurred which increased total field to 15 nT and eventually 18 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 388-434 km/s. These were likely arrivals of the CMEs from 10 and 11 Jul. CME activity waned through 15 Jul and background solar wind
conditions returned through most of 16 Jul. At 16/1836 UTC, another shock was observed likely associated with the 14 Jul halo CME. Total field increased from 7-14 nT and solar wind speed increased from approximately 350-450 km/s. The Bz component deflected southward
initially to -12 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 14 Jul, quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Jul, and quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 16 Jul.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 July - 12 August 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on 17 Jul-12 Aug.
There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm on 17-19 Jul due to potential significant flare activity from Region 3363 as it transits around the west limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20 Jul-01 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 17-21 Jul with G1 (Minor) storms likely on 17-18 due to persistent CME effects followed by CH HSS activity. Unsettled levels are expected once again on 03-04 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 17 0708 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-07-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jul 17 180 18 5
2023 Jul 18 182 25 5
2023 Jul 19 178 15 4
2023 Jul 20 170 10 3
2023 Jul 21 172 8 3
2023 Jul 22 172 5 2
2023 Jul 23 170 5 2
2023 Jul 24 160 5 2
2023 Jul 25 160 5 2
2023 Jul 26 160 5 2
2023 Jul 27 160 5 2
2023 Jul 28 165 5 2
2023 Jul 29 165 5 2
2023 Jul 30 170 5 2
2023 Jul 31 170 5 2
2023 Aug 01 165 5 2
2023 Aug 02 165 5 2
2023 Aug 03 165 10 3
2023 Aug 04 165 8 3
2023 Aug 05 170 5 2
2023 Aug 06 175 5 2
2023 Aug 07 180 5 2
2023 Aug 08 180 5 2
2023 Aug 09 180 5 2
2023 Aug 10 180 5 2
2023 Aug 11 175 5 2
2023 Aug 12 175 5 2
(NOAA)
