:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Aug 07 0249 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 July - 06 August 2023
Solar activity ranged from moderate to high levels. 20 events above the M-class threshold (R1-Minor) were observed during the summary period. High solar activity levels were observed on 01 Aug due to eight M-class (R1-Minor) events from Region 3380 (S10, L=125, class/area=Dkc/430 on 02 Aug) and again on 02 Aug due to four M-class (R1) flares from the same region and a fifth M-class flare from Region 3386 (N12, L=092, class/area=Dki/360 on 28 Jul). Region 3386 also caused high levels over 05 Aug, with an X1.6/2b flare (R3-Strong) at 05/2221 UTC, the strongest during the week, and an over 06 Aug with an M5.5/Sn flare (R2-Moderate) at 06/1840 UTC. Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were observed with CME activity on 02 Aug from flare activity from Region 3386. Additional Type II radio sweeps were produced by the same region twice on 05 Aug. Solar activity for the remainder of the summary period was at moderate levels.
Activity associated with Region 3386 produced significant eruptions that resulted in CMEs thought to contain Earth-directed components occurred over 01-02 Aug and 05-06 Aug. An M1.3/1f flare at 02/0812 UTC was associated with a CME first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning 02/0936 UTC; an M1.6/1n flare at 05/0718 UTC, which also resulted in the elevation of high energy proton flux levels (>10 MeV) with CME first seen in C2 imagery at 05/0700 UTC, and an X1.6/2b flare at 05/2221 UTC, which produced additional enhancements to high energy proton flux levels and associated CME first seen in C2 at 05/2236 UTC.
An S1 (Minor) proton event was observed over 05-06 Aug a long-duration M1.6/1n flare from Region 3386. The GOES-16 greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded S1 threshold at 05/115 UTC. The event reached peaked of 18.5 pfu at 05/1745 UTC. Flux levels dropped below the S1 threshold near the end of the 05 Aug UT day; however, an additional rise above the S1 threshold was observed following the X1.6/2b flare at 05/2221 UTC from Region 3386. The S1 then event continued until 06/0455 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels through the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm conditions. Quiet conditions on 31 Jul increased to unsettled levels on 01 Aug and further to active levels on 02 Aug in response to transient influence from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Jul. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 12 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -9 nT. Solar wind speeds were ~400 km/s during the transient. Geomagnetic activity decreased to unsettled levels over 03 Aug before another increase to active levels was observed 04 Aug in response to the onset of more transient influence from activity on the Sun over 01-02 Aug. A peak in geomagnetic activity of G3 conditions was observed on 07 Aug following an interplanetary shock, observed at L1 at 05/0207 UTC. Total magnetic field strength increased from 10 nT to 25 nT and Bz reached as far south as -21 nT. Geomagnetic activity decreased rapidly after 05/1200 UTC as the Bz component of the IMF rotated far north resulting in mostly quiet conditions through the remainder of the reporting period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 August - 02 September 2023
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels on 07 Aug, primarily due to the remaining flare potential of Region 3386 as it continues to rotate just beyond the W limb. Mostly low solar activity is expected for the rest of the outlook period, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity after 17 Aug as multiple active regions that have produced significant flare activity are expected to return to the visible disk from the Sun's farside.
There is a chance for proton events (S1-Minor) at geosynchronous orbit over the next three days due to potential activity from Region 3386 just beyond the Sun's W limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly moderate levels with the exception of high levels on 27-28 Aug due to anticipated positive polarity CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 07 Aug due to CME influence from activity on the Sun over 04 Aug. An increase to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels is likely on 08 Aug from eruptive activity on the Sun over 05 Aug. A decrease to active levels is expected on 09 Aug with waning transient influence transitioning to influence from a weak, positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are again likely on 26 Aug due to a recurrent CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Aug 07 0249 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-08-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Aug 07 168 12 4
2023 Aug 08 166 20 5
2023 Aug 09 164 12 4
2023 Aug 10 162 5 2
2023 Aug 11 162 5 2
2023 Aug 12 164 5 2
2023 Aug 13 164 5 2
2023 Aug 14 162 5 2
2023 Aug 15 162 5 2
2023 Aug 16 160 5 2
2023 Aug 17 162 5 2
2023 Aug 18 162 5 2
2023 Aug 19 164 5 2
2023 Aug 20 164 5 2
2023 Aug 21 168 5 2
2023 Aug 22 168 5 2
2023 Aug 23 168 5 2
2023 Aug 24 172 5 2
2023 Aug 25 172 5 2
2023 Aug 26 170 12 4
2023 Aug 27 172 5 2
2023 Aug 28 172 5 2
2023 Aug 29 174 5 2
2023 Aug 30 172 5 2
2023 Aug 31 172 5 2
2023 Sep 01 170 5 2
2023 Sep 02 168 5 2
(NOAA)
