:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Sep 04 0549 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 August - 03 September 2023
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Low levels were observed on 28-31 Aug. Moderate levels occurred on 01 Sep due to a long duration M1.2 flare (R1/Minor) at 01/0351 UTC with associated Type II (743 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a 190 sfu Tenflare. Moderate levels also occurred on 02 Sep due to an M3.3/Sf at 02/0712 UTC. Solar activity increased to high levels on 03 Sep due to an M1.1 at 03/0023 UTC and an M6.0 (R2/Moderate) at 03/0836 UTC. All flares were from Region 3413 (N11, L=100, class/area Dki/400 on 25 Aug). Other activity included a filament eruption centered near N22W14 beginning at 30/2015 UTC. An associated partial-halo CME was observed at 30/2200 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Modeling of this CME showed a potential arrival late on 02 Sep to early on 03 Sep. Another CME associated with the aforementioned M1.2 flare on 01 Sep was modeled with the potential for a glancing impact on 05 Sep.
A greater than 10 MeV proton event was observed associated with the M1.2 flare on 01 Sep. The event reached the 10 pfu (S1/Minor) threshold at 01/0430 UTC, reached a maximum flux of 25.8 pfu at 01/0610 UTC, and ended at 01/2010 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) levels. Nominal solar wind conditions prevailed through approximately 31/1630 UTC when an increase in total field to 12 nT was observed as well as an increase in speed from 323 to 400 km/s. A further increase in solar wind speed to near 540 km/s happened after 01/1755 UTC, followed by a decrease in solar wind speed beginning after 02/2125 UTC. Total field ranged from 5-10 nT during this time with prolonged periods of southward Bz. This was likely the result of a combination of positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) activity and the arrival of the 30 Aug CME. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet conditions on 28-31 Aug, quiet to unsettled conditions on 01 Sep, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming on 02 Sep, and quiet to G2 (Moderate) storming on 03 Sep.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 September - 30 September 2023
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 04-14 Sep and again on 29-30 Sep. There is a chance for M-class flaring (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 15-28 Sep with the return of Region 3413 to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 04-10 Sep due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04-08 Sep, 14-18 Sep, 23 Sep, and 28-30 Sep due to CH HSS activity. There is a chance for a glancing blow from the 01 Sep CME to impact the geomagnetic field on 05 Sep.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Sep 04 0549 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-09-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Sep 04 130 12 4
2023 Sep 05 135 12 4
2023 Sep 06 130 10 3
2023 Sep 07 135 12 4
2023 Sep 08 140 10 3
2023 Sep 09 140 5 2
2023 Sep 10 135 5 2
2023 Sep 11 135 5 2
2023 Sep 12 140 5 2
2023 Sep 13 145 5 2
2023 Sep 14 145 10 3
2023 Sep 15 150 8 3
2023 Sep 16 150 12 4
2023 Sep 17 155 8 3
2023 Sep 18 150 8 3
2023 Sep 19 155 5 2
2023 Sep 20 150 5 2
2023 Sep 21 145 5 2
2023 Sep 22 145 5 2
2023 Sep 23 150 12 4
2023 Sep 24 150 5 2
2023 Sep 25 145 5 2
2023 Sep 26 140 5 2
2023 Sep 27 140 5 2
2023 Sep 28 135 8 3
2023 Sep 29 135 12 4
2023 Sep 30 135 8 3
(NOAA)
