Monday, August 05, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Aug 05 0210 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July - 04 August 2024

Solar activity was at high levels throughout the period. A total of 63 M-flares (51 R1-Minor events, 12 R2-Moderate events) and one X-flare (R3-Strong event) were observed during the course of the week from 13 unique regions. The largest event was an impulsive X1.5/2b flare at 29/0237 UTC, with associated 300 sfu Tenflare and 535 km/s Type-II sweep, from Region 3766. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 30 Jul-01 Aug due to the arrival and passage of multiple CMEs that left the Sun over 27-29 Jul. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm periods were observed on 04 Aug following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Aug. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 August - 31 August 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the outlook period. M-class flares are expected with a chance for X-class flares through 31 Aug. 

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms throughout the outlook period. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

An Isolated period of G1 (Minor) storms are possible on 05 Aug due to waning CME influences. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet and quiet to unsettled over 06-31 Aug. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 05 0210 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-08-05
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Aug 05     240          15          5
2024 Aug 06     240          10          3
2024 Aug 07     240           8          3
2024 Aug 08     240           5          2
2024 Aug 09     240           5          2
2024 Aug 10     240           5          2
2024 Aug 11     240           8          3
2024 Aug 12     230           5          2
2024 Aug 13     225           5          2
2024 Aug 14     210           5          2
2024 Aug 15     205           5          2
2024 Aug 16     205           5          2
2024 Aug 17     200           5          2
2024 Aug 18     185           5          2
2024 Aug 19     180           5          2
2024 Aug 20     180           5          2
2024 Aug 21     180           5          2
2024 Aug 22     180          10          3
2024 Aug 23     200           8          3
2024 Aug 24     210           5          2
2024 Aug 25     220           5          2
2024 Aug 26     220           5          2
2024 Aug 27     235           5          2
2024 Aug 28     235           5          2
2024 Aug 29     245           5          2
2024 Aug 30     245           5          2
2024 Aug 31     240           5          2
(NOAA)