Monday, April 14, 2025

Weekly Propagatin Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Apr 14 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 April 2025

Solar activity was at high levels on 12-13 April due to the rapid growth and complexity of Region 4055 (N07 L=235, class/area Ekc/820 on 13 April). This region totalled 19 M-class flares during the highlight period. The largest was an M3.2 flare at 1851 UTC on 13 April. Region 4048 (S16 L=279, class/area Fkc/460 on 07 April) produced M-class activity as well. Other highlights included filament activity in the south central portion of the disk. Two filament eruptions were observed. The first was approximately 20 degrees long, centered near S20E20, and began erupting after ~12/2130 UTC. The second filament was approximately 12 degrees long, centered near S22W09, and began erupting after ~13/0500 UTC. CME signatures were observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery following
each event. Initial analysis and modeling indicated a likely Earth-directed component, with anticipated arrival at Earth near midday on 16 Apr. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels on 07-13 Apr due to the influence of various CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 08-09, and 12 April all due to influences from CH HSSs. Unsettled to active levels were observed on the remaining days in the highlight period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 April - 10 May 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 27 April - 10 May with the return of Region 4055. Low to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-15, and 23-28 April, 03-10 May due to the influences of recurrent CH HSS activity. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 16 April due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 13 April. G2 storm levels are expected again on 02 May due to recurrent CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storm levels are
expected on 17 April, 01 May, and 05-06 May, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14-15 April, 18 April, 22-23 April, 03-04 May, and 07-09 May, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity as well. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the remaining days in the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 14 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-04-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Apr 14     160          12          4
2025 Apr 15     150          12          4
2025 Apr 16     140          36          6
2025 Apr 17     140          20          5
2025 Apr 18     140          16          4
2025 Apr 19     145          10          3
2025 Apr 20     145           8          3
2025 Apr 21     150           8          3
2025 Apr 22     155          15          4
2025 Apr 23     155          15          4
2025 Apr 24     160          15          4
2025 Apr 25     165          10          3
2025 Apr 26     165           6          2
2025 Apr 27     165           6          2
2025 Apr 28     160           6          2
2025 Apr 29     155           6          2
2025 Apr 30     150           6          2
2025 May 01     160          25          5
2025 May 02     155          35          6
2025 May 03     155          20          4
2025 May 04     150          12          4
2025 May 05     145          25          5
2025 May 06     145          20          5
2025 May 07     140          18          4
2025 May 08     140          18          4
2025 May 09     140          18          4
2025 May 10     140          15          3
(NOAA)