Monday, November 03, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Nov 03 0428 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 October - 02 November 2025

Solar activity was at low levels on 27 Oct - 01 Nov. Solar activity reached moderate levels on 02 Nov due to a single M1.0 flare that occurred at 02/0026 UTC from a region beyond the East limb and became the largest flare of the week. All the active regions that crossed the visible solar disk this week presented a simple magnetic configuration (alpha or beta) and an unremarkable overall activity. Region 4267 (N04, L=60, class/area=Cso/120 on 28 Oct) was the most flaring region during the week, with three C-class flares: a C1.6 at 28/1626 UTC, a C4.7 at 01/1655 UTC and a C8.2 at 02/1246 UTC. Three Type-II radio bursts were observed on 29-31 Oct and were likely associated with far-sided activity: 29/0012 UTC (est. speed 1,357 km/s), 30/0424 UTC (est. 691 km/s) and 31/2013 UTC (est. 542 km/s). 

Multiple CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery during the week, but they were mostly far-sided. The CME that erupted around 30/0645 UTC from a region near N21E32 presented a potential Earth-directed component, and its modeled propagation suggested a partial impact on Earth's magnetosphere arriving on 02 Nov. However, no clear CME influences were observed on the solar wind data near-Earth during the period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached the 1,000 pfu threashold around 31/1200 UTC and remained at high levels until the end of the period. The maximum > 2MeV electron flux of 1,260 pfu was observed on 02/1650 UTC by the GOES-19 satellite. 

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 27 Oct and 01 Nov, and reached active levels on 28-31 Oct and 02 Nov. Five synoptic periods of minor storming (G1) levels were observed on 30-31 Oct due to the solar wind maximum disturbances caused by the high speed stream (HSS) associated to a positive coronal hole that dominated the geospace during the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 November - 29 November 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on 03-17 Nov due to the delayed return of Regions 4246 and 4248, that seem to be rotating into the Earthside solar disk between 03-04 Nov. At least two other regions are expected to emerge from the East limb until 10 Nov, as observed at GONG farside images. Solar activity could remain at moderate levels through 29 Nov if these regions have significant magnetic complexity. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, if the upcoming returning Regions 4246 and 4248 continue to be magnetically complex with enhanced activity, an isolated proton event is possible between 07-12 Nov. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at high levels until 13 Nov, due to the persistent perturbations at Earth's magnetosphere associated to the CH HSS. Moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Nov period, and high levels are expected to return on 27 Nov. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet to active during the 27-day period, with minor storming (G1) levels likely on 07-08, 15 and 26-27 Nov due to recurrence of CH HSS influences. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Nov 03 0429 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-11-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Nov 03     125          15          4
2025 Nov 04     125          10          3
2025 Nov 05     130           5          2
2025 Nov 06     130           8          3
2025 Nov 07     130          20          5
2025 Nov 08     135          25          5
2025 Nov 09     135          18          4
2025 Nov 10     132          12          4
2025 Nov 11     140          10          3
2025 Nov 12     140           5          2
2025 Nov 13     145           5          2
2025 Nov 14     145           5          2
2025 Nov 15     145          20          5
2025 Nov 16     145          12          4
2025 Nov 17     135          10          3
2025 Nov 18     130           5          2
2025 Nov 19     130           5          2
2025 Nov 20     135          12          4
2025 Nov 21     135          10          3
2025 Nov 22     125           5          2
2025 Nov 23     120           5          2
2025 Nov 24     120          15          4
2025 Nov 25     120          18          4
2025 Nov 26     118          25          5
2025 Nov 27     118          20          5
2025 Nov 28     120          12          4
2025 Nov 29     120          10          3
(NOAA)