Monday, September 21, 2026

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Sep 21 0317 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 September 2026


Solar activity was at very low levels on 14-18 Sep and increased to
low levels on 19-20 Sep. Region 4535 (N12, L=353, class/area Hrx/020
on 20 Sep) produced a C1.1 flare at 20/0518 UTC, while Region 4534
(N11, L=074, class/area Dro/030 on 20 Sep) produced a C3.7/1f flare
at 20/2234 UTC, the largest of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs
were detected during the highlight period. 



No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 14 Sep when a maximum flux of 4,650 pfu was observed
at 14/1315 UTC. Low to moderate levels were observed on 15-20 Sep. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 14-17 Sep,
with isolated active levels observed on 14 and 16 Sep. Unsettled to
active levels were observed on 14 Sep due to a southern hemisphere
filament eruption coupled with a SSBC. Unsettled levels were
observed on 15-17 Sep, with an isolated active period early on 16
Sep, all due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to isolated
unsettled levels were observed on 18-20 Sep. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 September - 17 October 2026

Solar activity is expected to be <span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);
white-space: pre-wrap;">at low levels, with a slight chance
</span><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); white-space: pre-wrap;">for
moderate to high levels throughout the forecast period. </span> 

<span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); white-space: pre-wrap;">No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.</span> 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 26-30 Sep, 01-03 Oct, and 05-11
Oct. Low to moderate levels are expected on 21-25 Sep, 04 Oct, and
12-17 Oct. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to <span style="color: rgb(0,
0, 0); white-space: pre-wrap;">reach active to G1 </span><span
style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); white-space: pre-wrap;">storm levels on
24-25 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to
active levels are expected on 26-27 Sep and 04-08 Oct due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 11-14 Oct due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Largely quiet levels are anticipated for all remaining dates in the
forecast period.</span> 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Sep 21 0317 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2026-09-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2026 Sep 21     105           5          2
2026 Sep 22     105           5          2
2026 Sep 23     100           5          2
2026 Sep 24     100          20          4
2026 Sep 25     105          18          5
2026 Sep 26     105          12          3
2026 Sep 27     100           8          3
2026 Sep 28     105           5          2
2026 Sep 29     110           5          2
2026 Sep 30     115           5          2
2026 Oct 01     115           5          2
2026 Oct 02     110           5          2
2026 Oct 03     105           5          2
2026 Oct 04     110          12          3
2026 Oct 05     110          15          4
2026 Oct 06     115          12          4
2026 Oct 07     115          10          3
2026 Oct 08     110           8          3
2026 Oct 09     105           5          2
2026 Oct 10     110           5          2
2026 Oct 11     100           9          3
2026 Oct 12      97           8          3
2026 Oct 13      96           8          3
2026 Oct 14      95           8          3
2026 Oct 15     100           5          2
2026 Oct 16     105           5          2
2026 Oct 17     100           5          2
(NOAA)