Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2024 May 27 0142 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 May 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels during the period. Low levels were observed on 20, 25 and 26 May. Moderate (R1-Minor) levels were observed on 21-24 May. Region 3679 (S09, L=200, class/area Ekc/500 on 22 May) produced 10 M-class flares, the

largest was an M4.2/1n event at 23/0216 UTC. Region 3689 (S08, L=098, class/area Dso/050 on 22 May) produced a single M-class flare on 23 May. No significant radio events were observed. No significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to normal levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a single active period observed late on 23 May. Unsettled to active periods were observed on 23-24 May due to negative CH HSS influence. Unsettled periods were observed late on

25 May through 26 May due to weak positive CH HSS influence. Total field readings approached 10 nT on 24-25 May with southward Bz readings to negative 10 nT late on 23 May. Solar wind readings were at a predominately steady 400 km/s throughout the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 May - 22 June 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at a chance for moderate (R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate) levels due to the return of previous active region 3664 (S17, L=347). There will be a slight chance of S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms from 28 May through 09 Jun upon the return of old region 3664. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 27-28 May and 08-12 Jun due to the influence of positive polarity CH HSSs. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 29-31 May,01-07 Jun and 13-22 Jun. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2024 May 27 0142 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2024-05-27

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2024 May 27     155           8          3

2024 May 28     155           8          3

2024 May 29     155           5          2

2024 May 30     155           5          2

2024 May 31     165           5          2

2024 Jun 01     165           5          2

2024 Jun 02     165           5          2

2024 Jun 03     175           5          2

2024 Jun 04     175           5          2

2024 Jun 05     190           5          2

2024 Jun 06     200           5          2

2024 Jun 07     210           5          2

2024 Jun 08     200          10          3

2024 Jun 09     195          12          4

2024 Jun 10     190           8          3

2024 Jun 11     185          12          4

2024 Jun 12     180          10          3

2024 Jun 13     170           5          2

2024 Jun 14     170           5          2

2024 Jun 15     170           5          2

2024 Jun 16     170           5          2

2024 Jun 17     170           5          2

2024 Jun 18     170           5          2

2024 Jun 19     170           5          2

2024 Jun 20     170           5          2

2024 Jun 21     170           5          2

2024 Jun 22     165           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 May 30 0129 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 May 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels throughout the week. Moderate solar activity was observed on 25 May when an M1/1n flare was observed at 25/1824 UTC from Region 3016 (S19, L=074, class/area=Dao/180 on 18 May), which was the largest event of

the period. Solar activity was low on 23-24, and 26-28 May, and very low levels were observed on 29 May. Regions 3014 (N24, L=105, class/area=Dkc/1190 on 20 May) and 3017 (N13, L=085, class/area=Dai/130 on 23 May) were the most active and complex regions on the disk this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected this period. 

No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate throughout the week. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels on 27-28 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Geomagnetic field conditions were quiet and quiet to unsettled throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 May - 25 June 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels throughout the period. M-class flare activity is possible on 07-22 Jun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 May-04 Jun, and be predominately normal to moderate on 05-25 Jun. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels on 24 Jun, and active levels on 12-13, 16-17, and 23 Jun, due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2022 May 30 0129 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2022-05-30

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2022 May 30     100          10          3

2022 May 31     100           8          3

2022 Jun 01     100           5          2

2022 Jun 02     100           5          2

2022 Jun 03      98           5          2

2022 Jun 04      98           5          2

2022 Jun 05      98           5          2

2022 Jun 06      98           5          2

2022 Jun 07     110           5          2

2022 Jun 08     112           5          2

2022 Jun 09     125           5          2

2022 Jun 10     130           8          3

2022 Jun 11     135          12          3

2022 Jun 12     140          14          4

2022 Jun 13     145          14          4

2022 Jun 14     150           8          3

2022 Jun 15     145          12          3

2022 Jun 16     140          14          4

2022 Jun 17     140          14          4

2022 Jun 18     140          12          3

2022 Jun 19     130           5          2

2022 Jun 20     125           5          2

2022 Jun 21     120           5          2

2022 Jun 22     110           5          2

2022 Jun 23     100          16          4

2022 Jun 24     100          22          5

2022 Jun 25     100          12          3

(NOAA)

Weely Propagationa Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Jul 09 0254 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 July 2018
Solar activity was very low levels through most of the reporting period. However, on 06 Jul, A C1 flare was observed at 06/2007 UTC from an area of enhanced flux, as observed in STEREO AHEAD 195 imagery, from around the E. limb. The area later rotated onto the visible disk as spotless plage. Several DSFs were observed on 05 Jul from the NE quadrant, though none were thought to have produced Earth-directed CMEs.

A coronal dimming in the SW quadrant was observed in SDO/AIA 193, around 04/2325 UTC, which was followed by an observation of a slow-moving CME first observed in STEREO AHEAD COR2 imagery beginning around 04/0324 UTC. No clear signature was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 or C3 imagery. Modeling of the event suggested the possibility of an Earth-directed component becoming geoeffective sometime after 09 Jul.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels on 02-04 Jul and decreased to normal to
moderate levels on 05-08 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet conditions were observed from 02-04 Jul. A SSBC on 05 Jul increased total magnetic field strength to 12 nT and solar wind speeds to around 450 km/s. The field response increased from quiet to an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm levels. Wind speeds continued between 400-525 km/s for the remainder of the reporting period; however, only quiet conditions were observed after 06/0300 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 July - 04 August 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. Normal to moderate
levels are expected from 09-20 Jul and 01-04 Aug; moderate to high levels are expected from 21-31 Jul. All enhancements in electron flux are anticipated in response to recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. A slow-moving CME, first observed early on 05 Jul, is forecast to cause active levels on 09 Jul and
unsettled levels on 10 Jul. Influences from multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs are expected to increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on 16 Jul, 21 Jul and 24 Jul; active levels are likely on 15
Jul, 20 Jul, 22 Jul; G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 23 Jul. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to produce quiet levels under nominal solar wind conditions.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Jul 09 0254 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-07-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Jul 09      72          12          4
2018 Jul 10      72           8          3
2018 Jul 11      74           5          2
2018 Jul 12      76           5          2
2018 Jul 13      76           5          2
2018 Jul 14      76           5          2
2018 Jul 15      76          16          4
2018 Jul 16      76           8          3
2018 Jul 17      76           5          2
2018 Jul 18      76           5          2
2018 Jul 19      76           5          2
2018 Jul 20      76          15          4
2018 Jul 21      74           8          3
2018 Jul 22      72          10          4
2018 Jul 23      72          18          5
2018 Jul 24      70           8          3
2018 Jul 25      68           5          2
2018 Jul 26      68           5          2
2018 Jul 27      68           5          2
2018 Jul 28      68           5          2
2018 Jul 29      68           5          2
2018 Jul 30      68           5          2
2018 Jul 31      68           5          2
2018 Aug 01     68           5          2
2018 Aug 02     68           5          2
2018 Aug 03     70           5          2
2018 Aug 04     72           5          2
(NOAA)