Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 Oct 26 2025 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 - 24 October 2010
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Activity was low during 18-20 October. Region 1112 (S20, L=208, class/area Eai/180 on 18 October) was responsible for seven C-class flares, the largest was a C2.5 x-ray event on 18/1643 UTC. This region rotated off the disk on 21 October. Activity decreased to very low levels during 21-22 October. Occasional low-level B-class flares occurred from Region 1112, Region 1115 (S29, L=125, class/area Cso/190 on 19 October), and Region 1117 (N22, L=060,
class/area Dso/210 on 24 October).
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit began the week at normal background levels. An increase to moderate to high levels began mid-day on 24 October and continued at high levels through the remainder of the interval.
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the period. Geomagnetic activity was at predominantly quiet levels during 18 - 19 October due to a weak coronal hole high-speed stream (CHHSS). Predominantly quiet levels were observed from 19/2100-22/2100 UTC, with a single period of active conditions at high latitudes between 20/1200-1500 UTC. A disappearing filament was observed at approximately 2300 UTC on 20 October (S24W63). On 22 October, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the arrival of a recurrent CHHSS with solar wind velocities increasing from 349-545 km/s, following a rise in solar wind density with the IMF Bt intensity peak at 10.7 nT at 22/1948 UTC and the Bz component of the IMF reaching a maximum deflection of -8.3 nT at 22/2006 UTC. Activity increased to predominantly unsettled to active levels on 23 October, with major to severe storm periods at high latitudes from 23/0900-1500 UTC. The solar wind velocities observed at the ACE spacecraft were approximately 650 km/s during this period. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed from 23/2100 to 24/2100 as the effects of the CHHSS continued.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 October - 22 November 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly very low to low levels. The possibility for intervals of low level activity depends on the emergence of new sunspot groups. The recurrence would suggest possible increases for 05-15 November (return of old Region 1112)
and 14-16 November (return of old Region 1117).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels through 28 October and then return to normal levels for the rest of the period as the effects from the CHHSS subside and the solar wind velocities decrease.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels at all of the latitudes through 27 October as the effects of the CHHSS wane. Quiet conditions are then expected to prevail until 01 November. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 November when another CHHSS moves into a geoeffective position. Mostly quiet levels are expected from 03 - 17 November. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions with periods of minor to major storming at high latitudes are expected for the remainder of the forecast period due to a recurrent CHHSS.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Oct 26 2025 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Oct 26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Oct 27 84 7 2
2010 Oct 28 84 5 2
2010 Oct 29 84 5 2
2010 Oct 30 84 5 2
2010 Oct 31 82 5 2
2010 Nov 01 82 5 2
2010 Nov 02 82 8 3
2010 Nov 03 75 5 2
2010 Nov 04 75 5 2
2010 Nov 05 80 5 2
2010 Nov 06 80 5 2
2010 Nov 07 80 5 2
2010 Nov 08 80 5 2
2010 Nov 09 80 5 2
2010 Nov 10 80 5 2
2010 Nov 11 80 5 2
2010 Nov 12 85 5 2
2010 Nov 13 85 5 2
2010 Nov 14 88 5 2
2010 Nov 15 88 5 2
2010 Nov 16 88 5 2
2010 Nov 17 85 5 2
2010 Nov 18 85 8 3
2010 Nov 19 82 20 4
2010 Nov 20 82 15 3
2010 Nov 21 80 10 3
2010 Nov 22 80 8 3
(NOAA)
