Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Dec 13 1738 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 December 2011
Solar activity was at predominantly low levels for the summary period. From 05 - 06 December, two regions dominated the disk in size and solar flare production, Region 1363 (S21, L=108, class/area=Eki/620 on 05 December) and Region 1362 (N08, L=131, lass/area=Eso/220 on 03 December). Both regions produced multiple C-class events with Region 1363 responsible for the largest event of the period, a C6/Sf flare at 05/2325 UTC. From 07 - 10 December, Region 1374 (S17, L=352, class/area=Dso/210 on 11 December) and
Region 1375 (N08, L=356, class/area=Cso/140 on 11 December) dominated the disk, each producing several small C-class events. The only days of the summary period with activity at very low levels were 06 and 11 December . Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed throughout the week, however, none of them were geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels from 05 - 09 December. A return to background levels was observed on 10 December.
Geomagnetic activity was at predominantly quiet levels during the summary period. From 05 - 08 December, quiet conditions were observed at all latitudes. On 09 December, an isolated period of active conditions was observed at high latitudes. On 10 December, quiet to unsettled conditions were observed as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed increased from around 330 km/s to around 500 km/s at the ACE spacecraft and the total IMF rose to around 11 nT. Another isolated period of active conditions was observed at high latitudes on 11 December as a result of the CH HSS effects.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December - 09 January 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for isolated M-class activity from 12 - 22 December. A decrease to predominantly low levels is expected from 23 -24 December as Regions 1374 and 1375 rotate off the disk. An increase to a slight chance for M-class activity is expected on 25 December as Region 1363 returns and remain for the duration of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire forecast period (14 December - 09 January).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels from 14 - 25 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 - 29 December due to effects from a recurrent CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected from 30 December - 04 January followed by an increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 05 - 06 January due to effects from a second recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 13 1738 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-12-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Dec 14 135 5 2
2011 Dec 15 135 5 2
2011 Dec 16 135 5 2
2011 Dec 17 135 5 2
2011 Dec 18 135 5 2
2011 Dec 19 135 5 2
2011 Dec 20 135 5 2
2011 Dec 21 130 5 2
2011 Dec 22 130 5 2
2011 Dec 23 135 5 2
2011 Dec 24 135 5 2
2011 Dec 25 140 5 2
2011 Dec 26 140 8 3
2011 Dec 27 140 8 3
2011 Dec 28 140 8 3
2011 Dec 29 145 8 3
2011 Dec 30 150 5 2
2011 Dec 31 150 5 2
2012 Jan 01 150 5 2
2012 Jan 02 145 5 2
2012 Jan 03 145 5 2
2012 Jan 04 145 5 2
2012 Jan 05 140 8 3
2012 Jan 06 140 8 3
2012 Jan 07 135 5 2
2012 Jan 08 135 5 2
2012 Jan 09 135 5 2
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2011 Dec 13 1738 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 December 2011
Solar activity was at predominantly low levels for the summary period. From 05 - 06 December, two regions dominated the disk in size and solar flare production, Region 1363 (S21, L=108, class/area=Eki/620 on 05 December) and Region 1362 (N08, L=131, lass/area=Eso/220 on 03 December). Both regions produced multiple C-class events with Region 1363 responsible for the largest event of the period, a C6/Sf flare at 05/2325 UTC. From 07 - 10 December, Region 1374 (S17, L=352, class/area=Dso/210 on 11 December) and
Region 1375 (N08, L=356, class/area=Cso/140 on 11 December) dominated the disk, each producing several small C-class events. The only days of the summary period with activity at very low levels were 06 and 11 December . Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed throughout the week, however, none of them were geoeffective.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels from 05 - 09 December. A return to background levels was observed on 10 December.
Geomagnetic activity was at predominantly quiet levels during the summary period. From 05 - 08 December, quiet conditions were observed at all latitudes. On 09 December, an isolated period of active conditions was observed at high latitudes. On 10 December, quiet to unsettled conditions were observed as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed increased from around 330 km/s to around 500 km/s at the ACE spacecraft and the total IMF rose to around 11 nT. Another isolated period of active conditions was observed at high latitudes on 11 December as a result of the CH HSS effects.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 December - 09 January 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for isolated M-class activity from 12 - 22 December. A decrease to predominantly low levels is expected from 23 -24 December as Regions 1374 and 1375 rotate off the disk. An increase to a slight chance for M-class activity is expected on 25 December as Region 1363 returns and remain for the duration of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels the entire forecast period (14 December - 09 January).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels from 14 - 25 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26 - 29 December due to effects from a recurrent CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected from 30 December - 04 January followed by an increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 05 - 06 January due to effects from a second recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Dec 13 1738 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-12-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Dec 14 135 5 2
2011 Dec 15 135 5 2
2011 Dec 16 135 5 2
2011 Dec 17 135 5 2
2011 Dec 18 135 5 2
2011 Dec 19 135 5 2
2011 Dec 20 135 5 2
2011 Dec 21 130 5 2
2011 Dec 22 130 5 2
2011 Dec 23 135 5 2
2011 Dec 24 135 5 2
2011 Dec 25 140 5 2
2011 Dec 26 140 8 3
2011 Dec 27 140 8 3
2011 Dec 28 140 8 3
2011 Dec 29 145 8 3
2011 Dec 30 150 5 2
2011 Dec 31 150 5 2
2012 Jan 01 150 5 2
2012 Jan 02 145 5 2
2012 Jan 03 145 5 2
2012 Jan 04 145 5 2
2012 Jan 05 140 8 3
2012 Jan 06 140 8 3
2012 Jan 07 135 5 2
2012 Jan 08 135 5 2
2012 Jan 09 135 5 2
(NOAA)
