:Issued: 2012 Oct 22 0609 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 October 2012
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Activity was low during 15 - 19 October due to mostly low-level C-class flares. The largest flare of this interval was a C7 at 17/0802 UTC from Region
1596 (N07, L=150, class/area Eho/460 on 21 October) which displayed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during most of its transit. Activity increased to high levels on 20 October due to an impulsive M9 x-ray flare at 20/1814 UTC from Region 1598 (S12, L=113, class/area Dhi/270 on 21 October) as it crossed the east limb. The M9 flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 516 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). Activity decreased to moderate levels on 21 October due to an M1/Sf flare at 21/2003 UTC from Region 1598, which was also associated with a non-Earth-directed CME.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during most of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels early on 15 October, then decreased to quiet levels for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 October - 17 November 2012
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during 22 October - 02 November with M-class flare activity likely from Region 1598. Activity is expected to decrease to low levels during 03 - 17 November. However, there will be a chance for M-class flare activity beginning 15 November as (old) Region 1598 returns to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly high levels during 22 - 24 October. A decrease to normal to moderate flux levels is expected during 25 October - 04 November. An increase to mostly high flux levels is expected during 05 - 17 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 22 - 23 October with a slight chance for active levels due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet levels are
expected during 24 October - 07 November. An increase to unsettled levels is expected on 08 November due to a solar sector boundary passage followed by a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a CH HSS. A further increase to active to minor storm levels is expected on 09 November due to the onset of a CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on 10 November as CH HSS effects subside. A further decrease to quiet levels is expected during 11 - 17 November.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 22 0609 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC WEB contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-10-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Oct 22 145 10 3
2012 Oct 23 140 10 3
2012 Oct 24 140 5 2
2012 Oct 25 135 5 2
2012 Oct 26 130 5 2
2012 Oct 27 130 5 2
2012 Oct 28 125 5 2
2012 Oct 29 120 5 2
2012 Oct 30 110 5 2
2012 Oct 31 110 5 2
2012 Nov 01 110 5 2
2012 Nov 02 100 5 2
2012 Nov 03 100 5 2
2012 Nov 04 105 5 2
2012 Nov 05 110 5 2
2012 Nov 06 115 5 2
2012 Nov 07 115 5 2
2012 Nov 08 120 10 3
2012 Nov 09 120 20 5
2012 Nov 10 120 15 4
2012 Nov 11 120 5 2
2012 Nov 12 125 5 2
2012 Nov 13 125 5 2
2012 Nov 14 130 5 2
2012 Nov 15 135 5 2
2012 Nov 16 135 5 2
2012 Nov 17 135 5 2
(NOAA)
