Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Oct 08 0351 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 October 2012
Solar activity was low. The largest flares of the week, both C4s, were attributed to Region 1575 (N08, L=181, class/area=Eko/320 on 22 Sep) at 01/0147Z and again at 01/1313Z as it rotated beyond the west limb. The remainder of the week was characterized by x-ray flares in the mid-to-upper B class and low C class range. An exceptionally long duration B7 flare (7hr 29min) from Region 1584 (S23, L=70, class/area=Dso/40 on 01 Oct) peaked at 05/0730Z and was associated with an earth-directed CME. The CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 05/0730Z and had an estimated speed of approximately 590 km/s. It was expected to reach earth late on 08 October. Another CME was observed later in the week when a 30 degree long filament, centered near S65W15, erupted on 07 October. SDO imagery first observed movement along the filament channel at approximately 06/2000Z with ejecta visible off the SW limb at about 07/0700Z.
LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial-halo CME lifting off the SW limb first visible at 07/0812Z. Subsequent WSA-Enlil model output indicated a possible weak, earth-directed component of this CME.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the week.

Geomagnetic field activity began the week at severe storm levels after an earth-directed CME from 27 September arrived late on 30 September. Severe storm levels were observed for the 01/00-03Z
synoptic period, decreasing in the subsequent periods to major storm levels for 01/03-06Z, and then active levels for the 01/06-09Z period. The remainder of the week saw quiet geomagnetic conditions
with the exception of the first synoptic period on 03 October which was unsettled.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 October - 03 November 2012

Solar activity is expected to be at generally low levels with a chance for an M-class event, particularly during 12-26 October when Old Region 1583 (N12, L=187, class/area=Dso/90) returns.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 11-13 October as a result of a coronal hole high speed stream. Flux for the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be at background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin at quiet to unsettled levels, increasing to active to minor storm levels late on 08 October with the arrival of the earth-directed CME from 05 October. Minor storm levels are expected to continue through 09 October. Then geomagentic field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels for 10-11 October under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions return on 12-14 October before subsequent coronal hole high speed streams bring unsettled to active conditions on 15-17 October.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Oct 08 0351 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2012-10-08
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2012 Oct 08      95          18          5
2012 Oct 09      95          20          5
2012 Oct 10      90          12          3
2012 Oct 11      90           8          3
2012 Oct 12      95           5          2
2012 Oct 13     100           5          2
2012 Oct 14     110           5          2
2012 Oct 15     120           8          3
2012 Oct 16     130          12          3
2012 Oct 17     140          10          3
2012 Oct 18     140           5          2
2012 Oct 19     145           5          2
2012 Oct 20     150           5          2
2012 Oct 21     145           5          2
2012 Oct 22     140           5          2
2012 Oct 23     140           5          2
2012 Oct 24     135           5          2
2012 Oct 25     135           5          2
2012 Oct 26     135           5          2
2012 Oct 27     135           5          2
2012 Oct 28     130           5          2
2012 Oct 29     125           5          2
2012 Oct 30     120           5          2
2012 Oct 31     115           5          2
2012 Nov 01     110           5          2
2012 Nov 02     105           5          2
2012 Nov 03     100           5          2
(NOAA)