Monday, August 11, 2014

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Aug 11 0136 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 August 2014

Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. The largest event of the period was a C4/1n flare on 08 Aug at 1701 UTC from Region 2135 (N11, L=129, class/area=Dho/250 on 08 Aug). Regions 2130 (S07, L=229, class/area=Dkc/290 on 31 Jul) and 2132 (S21, L=212, class/area=Eac/230 on 08 Aug) produced only low-to-mid level C-class flare activity and were the most prominent regions of this period. 

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed this period, however, a far-sided full-halo CME was observed in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery between 1555-1636 UTC on 08 Aug. This CME was associated with flare activity from old Region 2126 (S09, L=327). 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 04-05 Aug with normal to moderate levels observed on 06-10 Aug, reaching a maximum flux value of 908 pfu at 1640 UTC on 07 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 07 and 09 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels observed on 04-06, and 08 Aug. Quiet conditions with an isolated period of active conditions (1800-2100 UTC) were observed on 10 Aug, with the active period resulting from the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed steam. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 August - 06 September 2014

Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 12, 14-21, 23, 25-27, 30 Aug , and 03-05 Sep. Quiet to unsetteld conditions are expected for 11, 13, 22, 24, 28-29 Aug, 01-02, and 06 Aug due to weak influence from coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Quiet to active conditions are expected for 31 Aug due to moderate CH HSS effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 11 0137 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-08-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Aug 11     105           8          3
2014 Aug 12     105           5          2
2014 Aug 13     100           8          3
2014 Aug 14     100           5          2
2014 Aug 15      95           5          2
2014 Aug 16      95           5          2
2014 Aug 17      95           5          2
2014 Aug 18      95           5          2
2014 Aug 19      95           5          2
2014 Aug 20      95           5          2
2014 Aug 21     100           5          2
2014 Aug 22     110           8          3
2014 Aug 23     115           5          2
2014 Aug 24     115           8          3
2014 Aug 25     120           5          2
2014 Aug 26     120           5          2
2014 Aug 27     125           5          2
2014 Aug 28     130           8          3
2014 Aug 29     125           8          3
2014 Aug 30     125           5          2
2014 Aug 31     125          12          4
2014 Sep 01     125          10          3
2014 Sep 02     125           8          3
2014 Sep 03     120           5          2
2014 Sep 04     115           5          2
2014 Sep 05     110           5          2
2014 Sep 06     110           8          3
(NOAA)

Learn more about propagation at Tomas Hood's excellent website. The live reference resource site for solar
and geomagnetic data and images at : http://propagation.hfradio.org/