Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jul 24 0213 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 July 2023
Solar activity reached high levels on 18 Jul due to an M5 flare (R2-Moderate) at 18/0006 UTC from Region 3363 (S22, L=345, class/area=Dko/700 on 17 Jul); the largest event of the period. In addition to the M5 flare on 18 Jul, five R1-Minor events were
registered. Minor levels of solar activity were observed on 17, 19 and 22 Jul with R1-Minor events observed from Regions 3363, 3372 (N23, L=270, class/area=Fho/700 on 17 Jul), and 3373 (N08, L=248, class/area=Ekc/550 on 21 Jul). Low levels were observed on 20-21 and 23 Jul.
Following the long-duration M5 flare at 18/0006 UTC from Region 3363, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux increased sharply and exceeded 10 pfu (S1-Minor) at 18/0115 UTC. S2 (Moderate) storm levels were reached beginning at 18/0200 UTC, and a peak of 620 pfu
was observed at 18/0615 UTC. The 10 MeV proton flux levels gradually decreased but persisted above the S1 (Minor) threshold on 19 Jul, and decreased below event threshold at 20/0610 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 19-20 Jul, with normal to moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels late 17 Jul through early 18 Jul due to the passage of a CME that began on 16 Jul. Active levels were observed on 20 Jul following the passage of a CME from 17 Jul, and again on 21 Jul due to the passage of a CME from 18 Jul. Quiet or quiet and unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 July - 19 August 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 31 Jul-02 Aug, with normal to moderate levels expected to persist throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 24 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and again on 27-28 Jul due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 22 Jul and positive CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jul 24 0213 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-07-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Jul 24 165 12 4
2023 Jul 25 165 10 3
2023 Jul 26 160 5 2
2023 Jul 27 155 15 4
2023 Jul 28 155 12 4
2023 Jul 29 155 10 3
2023 Jul 30 155 8 3
2023 Jul 31 160 5 2
2023 Aug 01 165 5 2
2023 Aug 02 165 5 2
2023 Aug 03 165 10 3
2023 Aug 04 165 8 3
2023 Aug 05 170 5 2
2023 Aug 06 175 5 2
2023 Aug 07 180 5 2
2023 Aug 08 180 5 2
2023 Aug 09 180 5 2
2023 Aug 10 180 10 3
2023 Aug 11 175 8 3
2023 Aug 12 175 8 3
2023 Aug 13 175 5 2
2023 Aug 14 180 5 2
2023 Aug 15 180 5 2
2023 Aug 16 175 5 2
2023 Aug 17 175 5 2
2023 Aug 18 175 5 2
2023 Aug 19 170 5 2
(NOAA)
