Monday, June 09, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jun 09 0153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 June 2025


Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Regions 4100 (N08, L=245, class/area Eki/440 on 31 May) and 4105 (S15, L=130, class/area Eai/130 on 05 Jun) produced a few weak M-class (R1/Minor) flares this period. The largest event was an M3.3/2b flare observed at 02/1118 UTC from Region 4100. Weak, Earth-directed CME signatures were observed on 03 and 07 June. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 31/1710 UTC, reached the S2 (Moderate) levels at 01/0540 UTC, peaked at 666 pfu at 01/0915 UTC, decreased below S2 levels at 01/1245 UTC and ended at 02/0520 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 02-06 June with a peak flux of 5,180 pfu observed at 06/1615 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 07-08 June. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at Minor (G1) to Strong (G3) levels on 02-04 June due to CME effects. During this period, total field (Bt) peaked at 17 nT while Bz reached a southward extent of -15 nT. Wind speeds began the period at 900 km/s, but decayed to near 500 km/s by 04 June. Mostly quiet to active levels were observed on 05-08 June under weaker CME effects coupled with some negative polarity CH HSS effects. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 June - 05 July 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the outlook period due to multiple regions on the visible disk as well as multiple active regions scheduled to return from the farside of the Sun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 15-22 Jun, 26-29 Jun and 02-04 Jul following recurrent coronal hole influence. The remainder of the period is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at some elevated levels due to anticipated influence from multiple, recurrent coronal holes and some CME influence early in the outlook period. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 and 13 Jun due to CME and CH HSS effects with G2 (Moderate) effects likely on 14-15 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) effects are likely on 25-26 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 09 0153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-06-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jun 09     115          22          5
2025 Jun 10     115          12          4
2025 Jun 11     115          12          4
2025 Jun 12     120           8          3
2025 Jun 13     120          15          4
2025 Jun 14     120          32          6
2025 Jun 15     118          22          5
2025 Jun 16     120          15          4
2025 Jun 17     120          12          4
2025 Jun 18     125          10          3
2025 Jun 19     130           8          3
2025 Jun 20     130           8          3
2025 Jun 21     130           8          3
2025 Jun 22     125           8          3
2025 Jun 23     125          12          4
2025 Jun 24     125          15          4
2025 Jun 25     130          35          6
2025 Jun 26     125          25          5
2025 Jun 27     125          12          4
2025 Jun 28     120           8          3
2025 Jun 29     115           6          3
2025 Jun 30     115           6          3
2025 Jul 01     115          10          3
2025 Jul 02     110          12          4
2025 Jul 03     110           8          3
2025 Jul 04     110           5          2
2025 Jul 05     115           5          2
(NOAA)