Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jun 16 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 June 2025
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Solar activity was at low levels over 09-12 Jun, moderate levels on 13 Jun, and high levels on 14-15 Jun. In total, five R1 (Minor) events and two R2 (Moderate) events were observed this period, the largest of which was an M8.4/1b flare at 15/1807 UTC from Region 4114 (N17, L=34, class/area=Ekc/380 on 15 Jun). Associated with the M8.4 flare were multi-frequency radio bursts, Castelli U signature, an 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II (397 km/s) and IV radio sweeps. Region 4105 (S15, L=131, class/area=Eki/310 on 14 Jun) produced an M6.8/1n flare at 14/2301 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 09 Jun in response to the effects of a CME that left the Sun on 03 Jun, in addition to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity CH HSS influences persisted over 10-12 Jun, with quiet to unsettled levels observed on 10 Jun, and periods of active conditions and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming observed on 11-12 Jun. Sustained G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm periods were observed on 13 Jun following the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 08 Jun. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 14 Jun as CME effects waned and were followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Positive polarity CH HSS influences continued on 15 Jun with quiet to unsettled levels observed.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 June - 12 July 2025
Solar activity is likely to range from low to high levels throughout the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 16-22 Jun. Region 4114 (N17, L=34, class/area=Ekc/380 on 15 Jun) continues a trend of growth and increasing magnetic complexity, and has the capacity for additional event-level flaring. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to became enhanced over 16-18 Jun following the M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC. No other proton events are expected during the period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-22 Jun and 26 Jun-04 Jul. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, and again on 25-26 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are likely on 17 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, and on 18 Jun due to the anticipated passage of an interplanetary shock as the 15 Jun CME (M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC) passes in close proximity to Earth. Active conditions are again likely on 24 and 27Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Additional active periods are likely on 01-03 and 05-07 Jun in response to negative polarity CH HSS effects, and over 11-12 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 16 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2025-06-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2025 Jun 16 150 15 5
2025 Jun 17 145 10 4
2025 Jun 18 140 12 4
2025 Jun 19 140 5 2
2025 Jun 20 140 5 2
2025 Jun 21 138 5 2
2025 Jun 22 135 5 2
2025 Jun 23 125 8 3
2025 Jun 24 125 12 4
2025 Jun 25 130 25 5
2025 Jun 26 125 20 5
2025 Jun 27 125 15 4
2025 Jun 28 120 8 3
2025 Jun 29 115 5 2
2025 Jun 30 115 5 2
2025 Jul 01 115 15 4
2025 Jul 02 110 15 4
2025 Jul 03 110 12 4
2025 Jul 04 110 5 2
2025 Jul 05 115 15 4
2025 Jul 06 120 15 4
2025 Jul 07 130 12 4
2025 Jul 08 140 10 3
2025 Jul 09 145 8 3
2025 Jul 10 150 5 2
2025 Jul 11 155 15 4
2025 Jul 12 160 15 4
(NOAA)
