Thursday, November 12, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Nov 10 2321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 November 2009

Solar activity was very low. Region 1030 (N25, L=046, class/area Cro/050 on 05 November) emerged on the disk on 05 November. Region 1030 gradually decayed to spotless plage late on 07 November. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels through most of the period. On 08 November, a weak recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH-HSS) was observed from the ACE spacecraft. Quiet to isolated unsettled levels were observed between 08/0900-2100 UTC, with isolated active levels at high latitudes between 08/1200-1800 UTC. Velocities increased from 247 km/s at 07/1331 UTC to a high of 461 km/s at 08/2145 UTC. Interplanetary magnetic field activity
associated with the weak CH HSS included an increase in Bt (maximum of 11 nT at 08/0957 UTC) and southward Bz (minimum of -9 nT at 08/1821Z).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 November - 07 December 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There may be a small increase in background levels from 15-27 November due to the return of Region 1029. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during 11-17 November. Quiet to unsettled periods, with isolated active levels, are expected on 18-20 November, due to possible effects from a recurrent CH-HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on 21 November for the remainder of the period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Nov 10 2321 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Nov 10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Nov 11 72 5 2
2009 Nov 12 72 5 2
2009 Nov 13 72 5 2
2009 Nov 14 73 5 2
2009 Nov 15 73 5 2
2009 Nov 16 73 5 2
2009 Nov 17 73 5 2
2009 Nov 18 74 10 4
2009 Nov 19 75 8 4
2009 Nov 20 75 8 4
2009 Nov 21 75 5 3
2009 Nov 22 80 5 2
2009 Nov 23 80 5 2
2009 Nov 24 80 5 2
2009 Nov 25 75 5 3
2009 Nov 26 75 8 4
2009 Nov 27 72 5 2
2009 Nov 28 72 5 2
2009 Nov 29 70 5 2
2009 Nov 30 70 5 2
2009 Dec 01 70 5 2
2009 Dec 02 70 5 2
2009 Dec 03 70 5 2
2009 Dec 04 70 5 2
2009 Dec 05 70 5 2
2009 Dec 06 70 5 2
2009 Dec 07 72 5 2
(NOAA)