Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Nov 24 1951 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 November 2009

Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period. There was only one flare, a B1 at 1259 UTC on 17 November from a spotless plage region that later emerged as Region 1033 (N21, L=191, class/area Bxo/010 on 18 November). The week began with one spotted group, Region 1031 (N30, L=257, class/area Bxo/010 on 15 November) which decayed to plage on 17 November. Two new sunspot groups emerged on 18 November: Region 1032 (N17, L=218, class/area Bxo/010 on 18 November) and Region 1033. Region 1032 decayed back to plage
on 21 November and Region 1033 had decayed to plage by the end of the day on 22 November. A coronal mass ejection was observed to enter the LASCO C2 field of view off the East limb at 0755 UTC on 21 November. The associated disk signature was observed along a filament channel in the southeast portion of the solar disk.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the period.

The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet during the summary period. There was a small increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a sector boundary change from towards (negative) to away (positive)
early on 18 November, followed by a change back to towards (negative) on 19 November. A co-rotating interaction region was observed around 1600 UTC on 19 November (peak density ~16 p/cc) which was followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity from 340 km/s up to 575 km/s between 0200 UTC on 20 November through 1900 UTC on 21 November. Solar wind velocity slowly declined through the remainder of 21-22 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 November - 21 December 2009

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low with just a slight chance for brief periods of low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal background levels through the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 25 November. An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 26 November due to recurrence. Activity levels are expected to be predominantly quiet for the remainder of the outlook period from 26 November through 21 December.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Nov 24 1951 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Nov 24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Nov 25 75 5 2
2009 Nov 26 75 7 2
2009 Nov 27 73 5 2
2009 Nov 28 71 5 2
2009 Nov 29 70 5 2
2009 Nov 30 70 5 2
2009 Dec 01 70 5 2
2009 Dec 02 70 5 2
2009 Dec 03 70 5 2
2009 Dec 04 70 5 2
2009 Dec 05 70 5 2
2009 Dec 06 70 5 2
2009 Dec 07 70 5 2
2009 Dec 08 72 5 2
2009 Dec 09 72 5 2
2009 Dec 10 72 5 2
2009 Dec 11 75 5 2
2009 Dec 12 75 5 2
2009 Dec 13 75 5 2
2009 Dec 14 75 5 2
2009 Dec 15 75 5 2
2009 Dec 16 75 5 2
2009 Dec 17 75 5 2
2009 Dec 18 75 5 2
2009 Dec 19 75 5 2
2009 Dec 20 75 5 2
2009 Dec 21 75 5 2
(NOAA)