Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11039 has set around the western limb of the Sun. Old solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11038 has risen around the eastern limb of the Sun. At the moment it appears to contain a spot or two but is difficult to tell for sure at the moment. If so and it survives then NOAA/SWPC will re-number it #11040.

The solar flux index values are 69.2 76.8 75.1 and the sunspot number 13.
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL nz4o@arrl.net

COL LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2010 Jan 05 2351 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 December 2009 - 03 January 2010

Solar activity was at very low levels during 28 December - 01 January. Solar activity increased to low levels on 02 - 03 January. Region 1039 (S29, L=052, class/area, Dso/220 on 03 January) produced numerous B- and C-class flares, the largest a C3.1/1f event at 02/2312Z. The region maintained a Beta magnetic configuration during its transit.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the entire period. Observations from the ACE spacecraft were consistent with the quiet geomagnetic conditions. During the period, solar wind speed varied between a low of 259 km/s at 31/1142Z to a high of 376 km/s at 28/0037Z as the density increased to a peak of 13 p/cc. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between + and -7 nT during the period, while density peaked at 9 p/cc near the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 January - 01 February 2010

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the entire forecast period. Isolated moderate activity is possible from 06 - 18 January with the return of old Region 1035 (N30, L=252).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels through the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jan 05 2351 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Jan 05
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jan 06 72 5 2
2010 Jan 07 74 5 2
2010 Jan 08 76 5 2
2010 Jan 09 78 5 2
2010 Jan 10 80 5 2
2010 Jan 11 82 5 2
2010 Jan 12 84 5 2
2010 Jan 13 84 5 2
2010 Jan 14 84 5 2
2010 Jan 15 82 5 2
2010 Jan 16 82 5 2
2010 Jan 17 78 5 2
2010 Jan 18 76 5 2
2010 Jan 19 76 5 2
2010 Jan 20 78 5 2
2010 Jan 21 80 5 2
2010 Jan 22 80 5 2
2010 Jan 23 80 5 2
2010 Jan 24 80 5 2
2010 Jan 25 80 5 2
2010 Jan 26 80 5 2
2010 Jan 27 80 5 2
2010 Jan 28 80 5 2
2010 Jan 29 78 5 2
2010 Jan 30 76 5 2
2010 Jan 31 74 5 2
2010 Feb 01 72 5 2
(NOAA)