Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2011 May 10 1749 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 May 2011
Solar activity began the week at low levels with a C1 x-ray event at 1352 UTC on 02 May from Region 1199 (N18, L=188, class/area Dso/210 on 01 May), after rotating around the west limb. Activity continued at low levels with another C1 x-ray event at 1052 UTC on 03 May from Region 1204 (N17, L=47, class/area Cao/130 on 03 May). Activity decreased to very low levels, with only isolated B-class events occurring throughout the remainder of the summary period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during most of the summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity began the week ranging between unsettled to active conditions at mid latitudes, and minor to severe conditions at high latitudes on 02 May, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The high speed stream effects began prior to the summary period (29 April) and persisted through 02 May with solar wind speeds in excess of 640 km/s, and intermittent periods of negative Bz. Conditions began to subside on 03 May, settling to predominately quiet conditions with predominately positive Bz, before solar wind speeds decreased to background velocities near 400 km/s on 04 May. Conditions remained mostly quiet at all latitudes for the remainder of the summary period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 May - 06 June 2011
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for isolated periods of moderate levels due to the possible emergence of new regions, the return of old Region 1195 on 13 May, as well as Regions 1199 and 1202 on 14 May.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 11-19 May due to multiple coronal hole high-speed streams. Normal to moderate levels are expected to be predominate from 20-27 May, before elevated wind speeds from another recurrent coronal hole should produce high levels from 28 May until 02 June. Moderate or lower conditions should persist from 03 June until the end of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active 11-13 May due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Conditions are expected to subside for a day or so before increasing back to mostly unsettled conditions 15-17 May with another coronal hole coming into a favorable position to impact Earth. Conditions are forecasted to be predominately quiet 18-26 May, bar any transient activity, before the next recurrent coronal hole is expected on or around 26 May. Active to minor strorm conditions are possible 27-29 May due to the coronal hole, and lesser effects in the form of mostly unsettled to acive conditions should persist 30-31 May.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected 01-05 Jun before the currently geo-effective coronal hole returns to produce unsettled conditions on 06 June.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 May 10 1749 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-05-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 May 11 105 12 3
2011 May 12 105 15 3
2011 May 13 105 8 3
2011 May 14 105 5 2
2011 May 15 100 8 3
2011 May 16 100 8 3
2011 May 17 100 8 3
2011 May 18 100 5 2
2011 May 19 105 5 2
2011 May 20 110 5 2
2011 May 21 110 5 2
2011 May 22 110 5 2
2011 May 23 110 5 2
2011 May 24 110 5 2
2011 May 25 110 5 2
2011 May 26 110 12 3
2011 May 27 110 22 5
2011 May 28 110 18 4
2011 May 29 110 18 4
2011 May 30 110 15 3
2011 May 31 105 8 3
2011 Jun 01 105 5 2
2011 Jun 02 105 5 2
2011 Jun 03 105 5 2
2011 Jun 04 105 5 2
2011 Jun 05 105 5 2
2011 Jun 06 105 8 3
(NOAA)
