Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jun 30 0632 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 June 2014
Solar activity was at low levels this period with only C-class flares observed. Region 2104 (S10, L=270, class/area=Dki/260 on 29 Jun) produced the largest event of the period, a C4 flare at 29/1152 UTC.
Among regions that were in transit across the visible disk this period, Region 2096 (N09, L=357, class/area=Cao/120 on 25 Jun) and Region 2104 were the most productive.
Region 2096 was the primary flare producer throughout the period, totaling seven C-class flares with a C2 flare at 26/0918 UTC being the largest. Late in the period, Region 2104 emerged onto the visible disk and produced nine C-class flares in a two day time span.
On 23 June, an approximately 5 degree long filament was seen in SDO/AIA 304 imagery erupting near S18E10. On 25 June, an approximately 23 degree long filament, centered near N20E18, was observed lifting off the disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Analysis of the WSA-Enlil runs for each associated coronal mass ejection (CME), indicated a trajectory too far off of the ecliptic plane to have appreciable impacts at Earth.
On 23 June at 2202 UTC an interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft indicating the arrival of the 19 June filament eruption. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased from 2 nT to 5 nT with solar wind speed increasing from 320 km/s to 392 km/s. A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 34 nT was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 23/2308 UTC. The geomagnetic field saw quiet to unsettled activity as a result of this transient.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period, reaching a maximum value of 160 pfu at 23/1700 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was predominately quiet with periods of unsettled conditions on 23-24 June and 28-29 June.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 June - 26 July 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity throughout the outlook period due to Region 2104 (S10, L=270), Region 2106 (N15, L=261), Region 2107 (S20, L=259), and with the return of old region 2087 (S18, L=155).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be predominately quiet throughout the period with the exceptions of unsettled conditions on 2-3 July, 11 July, 14-17 July and isolated active conditions on 15 July due to anticipated effects from a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jun 30 0632 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-06-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jun 30 130 5 2
2014 Jul 01 130 5 2
2014 Jul 02 140 8 3
2014 Jul 03 145 8 3
2014 Jul 04 140 5 2
2014 Jul 05 145 5 2
2014 Jul 06 155 5 2
2014 Jul 07 155 5 2
2014 Jul 08 155 5 2
2014 Jul 09 150 5 2
2014 Jul 10 155 5 2
2014 Jul 11 165 8 3
2014 Jul 12 150 5 2
2014 Jul 13 130 5 2
2014 Jul 14 130 8 3
2014 Jul 15 130 12 4
2014 Jul 16 110 8 3
2014 Jul 17 110 8 3
2014 Jul 18 115 5 2
2014 Jul 19 100 5 2
2014 Jul 20 100 5 2
2014 Jul 21 95 5 2
2014 Jul 22 95 5 2
2014 Jul 23 90 5 2
2014 Jul 24 90 5 2
2014 Jul 25 105 5 2
2014 Jul 26 120 5 2
(NOAA)
