Thursday, March 12, 2015
Solar activity update
Solar activity forecast for the period March 13 - 19, 2015
Activity level: mostly low to high
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B2.0-C1.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 100-150 f.u.
Events: class C (1-15/day), class M (0-5/day), class X (0-3/period),
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-100
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 13 - 19, 2015
During Fri - Sat, we expect active conditions (for Budkov observatory, the K-index should reach 4).
At the Sunday, Mar 15, when the most active episode should pass over, we expect at most unsettled conditions. Mar 16 - 17, quiet to unsettled conditions are mostly exxpected. The last two days, we expect at most unsettled conditions with active episode possible.
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR
Geomagnetic observatory Budkov (BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 13 - April 8, 2015
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on April 6
mostly quiet on March 14, 19 - 20, 25 - 26, April 7 - 8
quiet to unsettled on March 15, 21, 24, 27, 30 - 31, April 1 - 2, 4 - 5
quiet to active on March 13, 16 - 18, 22, April 3
active to disturbed on March 23, 28 - 29
disturbed on March -
Amplifications of the solar wind are still mostly unpredictable, but some peaks are expected about March 16 - 17, 22 - 23, 28 - 29
- Reliability of predictions is is still reduced.
- Parentheses indicate a lower probability of increased activity.
Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
(Dario Monferini, /Italy/playdx)
at 8:40 PM