Thursday, December 28, 2017

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Dec 25 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 December 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2692 (N18, L=087, class/area=Eai/160 on 24 Dec) was the only active region with sunspots this period and produced multiple low and mid-level B-class flares throughout the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 18-23 Dec with moderate levels observed on 24 December.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels early on 18 Dec in response to the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 19 and 23-24 Dec and generally quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 December - 20 January 2018

Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels throughout the period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-30 Dec, 02-06 and 14-19 Jan. Normal and normal to moderate greater than 2 MeV electron flux values are expected throughout the remainder of the forecast period.  Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 01 and 13 Jan with active levels expected on 25 Dec and 02, 08, 14 and 20 Jan under the influences of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 25 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-12-25
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Dec 25      75          12          4
2017 Dec 26      75           8          3
2017 Dec 27      75           5          2
2017 Dec 28      75           5          2
2017 Dec 29      75           5          2
2017 Dec 30      74           5          2
2017 Dec 31      72          10          3
2018 Jan 01      72          25          5
2018 Jan 02      72          15          4
2018 Jan 03      72          10          3
2018 Jan 04      72           5          2
2018 Jan 05      72           5          2
2018 Jan 06      72           5          2
2018 Jan 07      72          10          3
2018 Jan 08      72          12          4
2018 Jan 09      72           6          2
2018 Jan 10      72           5          2
2018 Jan 11      72           5          2
2018 Jan 12      72           5          2
2018 Jan 13      74          22          5
2018 Jan 14      75          16          4
2018 Jan 15      75           6          2
2018 Jan 16      75           5          2
2018 Jan 17      75           5          2
2018 Jan 18      75           5          2
2018 Jan 19      75           5          2
2018 Jan 20      75          12          4
(NOAA)