Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 August 2019

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 05 Aug and at high levels from 06-11 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 26,161 pfu observed at 07/1930 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the period. The period began as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) was becoming geoeffective. Total field increased to 23 nT by 05/0855 UTC as the Bz component became variable between +11 nT/-19 nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 745 km/s at 06/0750 UTC.

The geomagnetic field responded with four consecutive periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Aug followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Aug. Two further enhancements in solar wind speed were observed on 08 Aug and on  09-10 Aug. The first peaked around 575 km/s while the second peaked at approximately 650 km/s. However, no significant increases in total field were observed. Quiet conditions were observed on 07 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels on 08-11 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 August - 07 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (12 Aug-07 Sep).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on12-16 Aug and again on 02-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled levels on 12 Aug, 16 Aug, 26-28 Aug, and 06-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Sep with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 01 Sep also due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0625 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-08-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Aug 12      67           8          3
2019 Aug 13      67           5          2
2019 Aug 14      67           5          2
2019 Aug 15      67           5          2
2019 Aug 16      67           8          3
2019 Aug 17      67           5          2
2019 Aug 18      67           5          2
2019 Aug 19      67           5          2
2019 Aug 20      67           5          2
2019 Aug 21      67           5          2
2019 Aug 22      67           5          2
2019 Aug 23      67           5          2
2019 Aug 24      67           5          2
2019 Aug 25      67           5          2
2019 Aug 26      67           8          3
2019 Aug 27      67           8          3
2019 Aug 28      67           8          3
2019 Aug 29      67           5          2
2019 Aug 30      67           5          2
2019 Aug 31      67           5          2
2019 Sep 01      67          38          5
2019 Sep 02      67          14          3
2019 Sep 03      67           5          2
2019 Sep 04      67           5          2
2019 Sep 05      67           5          2
2019 Sep 06      67           8          3
2019 Sep 07      67           8          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Dec 25 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 December 2017

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the period. Region 2692 (N18, L=087, class/area=Eai/160 on 24 Dec) was the only active region with sunspots this period and produced multiple low and mid-level B-class flares throughout the week. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 18-23 Dec with moderate levels observed on 24 December.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels early on 18 Dec in response to the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 19 and 23-24 Dec and generally quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 December - 20 January 2018

Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels throughout the period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 26-30 Dec, 02-06 and 14-19 Jan. Normal and normal to moderate greater than 2 MeV electron flux values are expected throughout the remainder of the forecast period.  Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 01 and 13 Jan with active levels expected on 25 Dec and 02, 08, 14 and 20 Jan under the influences of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 25 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-12-25
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Dec 25      75          12          4
2017 Dec 26      75           8          3
2017 Dec 27      75           5          2
2017 Dec 28      75           5          2
2017 Dec 29      75           5          2
2017 Dec 30      74           5          2
2017 Dec 31      72          10          3
2018 Jan 01      72          25          5
2018 Jan 02      72          15          4
2018 Jan 03      72          10          3
2018 Jan 04      72           5          2
2018 Jan 05      72           5          2
2018 Jan 06      72           5          2
2018 Jan 07      72          10          3
2018 Jan 08      72          12          4
2018 Jan 09      72           6          2
2018 Jan 10      72           5          2
2018 Jan 11      72           5          2
2018 Jan 12      72           5          2
2018 Jan 13      74          22          5
2018 Jan 14      75          16          4
2018 Jan 15      75           6          2
2018 Jan 16      75           5          2
2018 Jan 17      75           5          2
2018 Jan 18      75           5          2
2018 Jan 19      75           5          2
2018 Jan 20      75          12          4
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 May 13 1923 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 11 May 2008

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during each day of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 05 May. Activity increased to active levels on 06 May. Activity decreased to quiet levels during 07 - 11 May. ACE solar wind
measurements indicated a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream was in progress at the start of the summary period. Solar wind velocities reached a peak of 670 km/sec at 05/2319 UTC, then gradually decreased during the rest of the period (minimum velocity 318 km/sec at 11/2355 UTC). IMF Bt increased to a maximum of 6 nT at 05/0135 UTC, then ranged from 01 - 05 nT during the rest of the period. IMF Bz was variable in the + 05 nT range.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 May - 09 June 2008

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 21 - 28 May and 01 - 09 June.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during 14 - 19 May. Activity is expected to increase to minor storm levels on 20 May with major storm levels possible at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to active levels on 21 May as high-speed stream effects begin to subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during 22 May - 02 June. Quiet conditions are expected during 03 - 09 June.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 May 13 1923 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 May 13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 May 14 70 5 2
2008 May 15 70 5 2
2008 May 16 70 5 2
2008 May 17 70 5 2
2008 May 18 70 5 2
2008 May 19 70 5 2
2008 May 20 70 30 5
2008 May 21 70 15 4
2008 May 22 70 10 3
2008 May 23 70 10 3
2008 May 24 68 10 3
2008 May 25 68 10 3
2008 May 26 68 10 3
2008 May 27 68 10 3
2008 May 28 68 10 3
2008 May 29 68 12 3
2008 May 30 68 12 3
2008 May 31 68 10 3
2008 Jun 01 68 10 3
2008 Jun 02 68 10 3
2008 Jun 03 68 5 2
2008 Jun 04 68 5 2
2008 Jun 05 68 5 2
2008 Jun 06 68 5 2
2008 Jun 07 68 5 2
2008 Jun 08 68 5 2
2008 Jun 09 70 5 2
(NOAA)